Commodities Update What’s really happening to China’s copper demand? Traditional methods of calculating copper demand have been suggesting that Chinese consumption is actually falling. However, these estimates of “apparent consumption” are distorted by changes in... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are oil prices set to take off due to Syria risks? Fears that Western intervention in Syria could increase the risks of a broader Middle East conflict have already put some upward pressure on the price of Brent crude. However, even if tensions do... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would the tapering of QE mean for the MENA region? Fears that the US Fed may begin to taper its third round of quantitative easing (QE) have led to a sell-off in emerging market assets over the past few weeks. The MENA region has escaped relatively... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are commodities to the tapering of QE3? The prospect of a reduction in US monetary stimulus has already begun to undermine the prices of many risky assets, from developed market equities to emerging market currencies. However, this prospect... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's underlying demand still weak The jump in China’s imports of major commodities on a month on month basis in May was probably flattered by the easing of earlier port delays. Other incoming economic data suggest that demand remains... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Correction in lumber prices should prove temporary US lumber prices have fallen sharply over the last couple of months after what, with hindsight, looks like an earlier overshoot. Nonetheless, we expect prices to climb again over the rest of the year. 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Growth mix fails to help commodities Signs of stronger growth in the US have failed to boost commodities, due in part to the likelihood that the Fed will start to scale back its asset purchases under QE3 sooner than it might otherwise... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices range-bound by supply We think that the price of aluminium is unlikely to be able to sustain moves much outside the range of $1,800 to $2,100 per tonne over the next year or two, due to the potential supply responses in... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much does OPEC matter? The twice-yearly OPEC meeting in Vienna tomorrow is likely to confirm the official production target of 30m barrels per day. But the bigger picture is that the cartel now ranks no higher than a... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rise in soybean prices unlikely to be sustained The recent strength in US soybean prices has been driven by fears of tight supplies as congestion at Brazilian ports delays exports. However, as the logistical problems ease and planting of the new... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising mine output to keep copper price weak Global copper mine output is on track to rise rapidly for a second successive year, despite a recent landslide and a tragic tunnel collapse at two of the world’s largest mines (Bingham Canyon and... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low shipping costs add to concerns over the recovery The persistent weakness in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is still primarily a reflection of the surge in the supply of cargo ships over the last few years. Demand for transporting dry bulk commodities... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rally in platinum prices postponed not cancelled Anglo American Platinum’s decision to scale back its planned production cuts mean that the global platinum industry is better supplied than had appeared likely. We suspect that further mine closures... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain and oilseed supply to surge to record levels Projections of record global crop production in 2013/14 by the United States Department of Agriculture have been the trigger for renewed weakness in the prices of US grains and oilseeds. We had... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why QE helps equities more than commodities There are three main reasons why further monetary stimulus, including quantitative easing (QE), is likely to benefit equities more than it benefits the prices of industrial commodities, including... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil’s oil output reach its potential? Brazil is unlikely to meet its ambitious targets for oil production, but crude output could still increase by at least one million barrels per day from current levels by 2020. This would add to... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
