Commodities Focus Uranium: the Capital Economics view The price of uranium is at a seven-year low but we forecast that it will increase from $36.50/lb today to $50 by the end of 2014, and to $60 in 2015. The key drivers are likely to be a recovery in... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Is the worst now over for "risky" assets? A slow but steady removal of monetary stimulus in the US over the next few years is likely to have important implications for a wide variety of financial market instruments. It should buoy the dollar... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply takes centre stage Supply factors played a key role in the movement of many commodity prices in July. Most importantly, the price of WTI has risen towards the price of the global benchmark, Brent crude, as logistical... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global potash price slump won't harm Canada's economy The anticipated slump in potash prices should have only a minor impact on Canada's economy. Potash mining represents a tiny share of Canada's GDP and exports. Moreover, the relatively lower cost of... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China suffering from deflation? If China has dropped into deflation, as many now claim, one implication is that stimulus would succeed in driving a sustainable economic rebound. But evidence of deflation is weak, at best. This is... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Headwinds set to persist Commodities are extending their generally poor performance into a third successive year. Concerns about the early withdrawal of monetary stimulus at least are overdone, even though there may still be... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China weakening, euro-zone stabilising Flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone, released this morning, have continued to diverge. China’s manufacturing index fell unexpectedly to its lowest level since last August, but the euro-zone... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt in turmoil (again) Egypt’s “second revolution” has made the outlook for the Arab world’s most populous nation highly uncertain. The economy is already extremely fragile – growth is sluggish, unemployment is high and the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revamped SICAD won’t save Venezuela The re-launch of foreign exchange auctions in Venezuela, coupled with an increase in the public debt ceiling, is unlikely to solve the country’s dollar drought. We continue to think that GDP will... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set to slow as oil boom fades Growth in the Gulf is set to slow over the next couple of years as the past decade’s oil boom starts to fade. At the same time, oil prices are likely to fall too. This is unlikely to pose a serious... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is silver set to outshine gold? The analyst consensus is that the price of silver is likely to outperform that of gold as both continue to recover in the next year or so. We are nudging our gold price forecasts higher today in the... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currency sell-off unlikely to prompt a wave of rate hikes Lingering fears over the impact of a tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed have seen emerging market currencies continue to weaken over the past month – countries with current account deficits... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Nuclear energy restart not a game changer A partial resumption of nuclear energy generation is unlikely to reduce Japan’s trade deficit meaningfully. Electricity prices could fall slightly, but are likely to remain very high compared to... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further rises in oil prices would undermine global growth The recent rise in oil prices is not large enough to be a significant drag on global growth, particularly given that Brent crude has increased much less than WTI. However, if prices rise much further... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Recent fall in gas prices due to a lot of hot air The recent swings in the price of natural gas in the US have mainly been caused by the unusually cold spring. The bigger picture is that higher demand from utilities and manufacturers and lower... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada should weather China's slowdown Canada should weather China's economic slowdown relatively well, with fairly minor consequences for economic growth. Since China represents a fairly small share of Canada's total exports, any slowdown... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
