Commodities Update How big an impact could an Iran deal have on oil prices? Iran and the West appear to be edging towards an interim deal that should ease tensions over Iran's nuclear programme, despite the impasse in Geneva at the weekend. Sanctions on Iran's oil exports... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn supplies to remain plentiful, despite rising demand In spite of the increase in demand for animal feed projected in the latest WASDE, we still expect the global supply of the major grains and soybeans to be ample. What’s more, other source of demand... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Chinese imports need not be bullish The pick-up in China's imports of commodities in recent months is perhaps further evidence of the recovery in economic activity already seen in other data, but is not necessarily telling us much about... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Risks still on downside but prices looking more reasonable After two to three years of generally poor performance, many commodity prices have now fallen to levels that are starting to appear attractive again. We still think the near-term risks generally lie... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the Fed taper be a game-changer? The question of exactly when the US Fed will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 has understandably been the focus of much analysis and speculation (including by ourselves). There are six... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Ample supply offsets improving prospects for demand The US Federal government shutdown, and subsequent reopening, seems to have had little impact on commodity markets. If anything, the prospect of an extended period of monetary stimulus has supported... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold should continue to outshine industrial metals The prospects for the price of gold remain better than those for most industrial metals, with silver fitting in somewhere in between. 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait reform is likely to be a long journey Comments by Kuwait’s ruling Emir ahead of the reopening of the National Assembly suggest that the government has recognised the need for wholesale economic reform. Even so, we think that reform... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising supply to continue to undermine copper prices The supply of copper has risen significantly faster than demand so far this year. This trend should lastwell into next year, adding to the downward pressure on the price of the red metal. We... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Natural resource boom will bring its own challenges The production of natural resources will be a key driver of growth in Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania over the coming years, but it is also likely to bring a number of challenges. In Ghana, oil... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Increased efficiency to sustain shale boom Much of the surge in US oil production has come from improvements in drilling technology and processes rather than an increase in the number of rigs. These improvements should reduce costs and allow... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rise in the price of cocoa more bitter than sweet for producers Bad weather in West Africa may continue to drive the price of cocoa higher until the rainy season in the spring. But we think over the next few years, a combination of better farming techniques and... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Constrained supply keeping oil prices high Oil prices have been lifted again by hopes of stronger demand and by disruption to supply in the Middle East, but we do not expect these supports to be sustained. The return of supply, currently being... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strength in China's commodity imports likely to be temporary China’s imports of most major commodities rose in September. But we expect growth in demand for commodities to slow over the next year as China rebalances its economy. 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why isn't the gold price higher? There are several possible explanations for the failure of the gold price to take off despite the prospect that the US government may soon default on its debt. The most plausible is simply that the... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China has the cotton market sewn up for now We expect movements in the price of cotton to be driven by policy decisions in China over the next year. A probable reduction in government support for Chinese cotton farmers in 2014 is likely to put... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
