Commodities Update Will 2013 be a rerun of 2012 for oil prices? The recent weakness supports our view that oil prices have been unsustainably high given the fragility of the global economic recovery. Over the next few years we continue to expect $100 to become a... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold becomes a traders’ market The trigger for the slump in the gold price since Friday appears to have been aggressive selling by speculative traders, rather than any change in the fundamental drivers. Gold has also been caught up... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in grain prices to help keep global inflation subdued The recent declines in the prices of US grains and oilseeds have received much less media attention than the surge last summer, but they have now reversed most of those gains. Admittedly, the prices... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still plenty of upside for gold The gold market was hit yesterday both by the prospect of an early end to the Fed’s quantitative easing and by speculation that Cyprus could be the first of the troubled euro-zone countries to sell... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports fail to keep pace China’s total imports accelerated in y/y terms in March, but commodity imports remained weak. In particular, we estimate that the year-on-year decline in the volume of commodity imports in the first... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum prices to rise even without OPEC-style cartel Recent speculation about an OPEC-style producer cartel for the platinum group metals (chiefly platinum, palladium and rhodium) is unlikely to come to much. However, falling production due to cost... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Corn leads commodities lower as demand disappoints The collapse in the prices of US grains has received the most attention recently, but commodity prices in general continued to fall in March. The main drivers of this weakness were worries about the... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bond yields spike in Egypt as IMF deal looks further away Yields on Egyptian dollar-denominated bonds have spiked as an IMF deal looks increasingly distant and concerns over the government’s fiscal position mount. 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is this the end of the golden age? Gold has been in and out of favour for well over a year, but its price has been broadly stable rather than collapsed – suggesting that underlying support remains strong. Looking ahead, a revival of... 22nd March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Much lower oil prices needed for strong recovery The $10 decline in the price of a barrel of Brent since early February reflects the faltering in the world economy and, most recently, the fresh worries about the euro-zone triggered by the crisis in... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil prices still too high for comfort The past few weeks have seen the re-emergence of two key factors that we expect to undermine oil prices further over the course of the year, namely a faltering in the world economy and a renewed flare... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How much will Saudi Arabia benefit from strong Asian growth? Saudi Arabia’s growing trade ties with Asia bode well for the economy’s growth prospects over the coming years. While we expect advanced economies to remain sluggish, Emerging Asia should grow at... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the Cyprus crisis means for the rest of the world A further escalation of the crisis in tiny Cyprus may have global implications well beyond the immediate market reactions today. It could influence the course of fiscal policy in the UK and monetary... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has "Dr. Copper" lost his touch? The divergence between the strength of the prices of equities and the weakness of the prices of industrial metals, including copper, does not necessarily tell us anything new about the sustainability... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain prices still have further to fall as supply fears ease The prices of all the major US grains have already fallen significantly from their peaks last summer, but we expect them to decline further during 2013. 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will Chinese demand rescue commodity prices? There have been many conflicting signals recently on the prospects for China’s demand for commodities. Indeed, the February trade data, released earlier today, could be spun either positively or... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
