Commodities Update What’s behind the rally in gold? The recent partial recovery in the price of gold reflects a range of positives. Some of these should be sustained, notably the growing recognition that US monetary conditions will remain loose even... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Favourable oil prices could spur business investment The rebound in domestic crude oil prices over the first half of this year has improved the outlook for Canadian business investment. Overall, this suggests some upside risk to GDP outlook of 1.5% in... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone data provide some cheer (for now) In the event, the FOMC minutes simply reinforced expectations that the US central bank will start to taper its asset purchases as soon as next month. Instead, industrial metals prices have been buoyed... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update LME steel prices set to rally We expect the LME steel price to rise from around $165 per tonne to $270 by the end of 2015 due to the narrowing of differences between LME and other steel prices and the closure of Chinese capacity. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will US energy exports be a game-changer? The surge in US oil and gas production in recent years has fuelled expectations that the country could eventually become a major energy exporter. Indeed, the US already runs trade surpluses in coal... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Latest jump in oil prices looks unsustainable Only a small part of the recent run-up in oil prices is due to the turmoil in Egypt. But whatever the reason for the latest jump in the cost of crude, the fragility of the global economic recovery and... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for euro-zone equities? Today’s euro-zone GDP data provided a further small boost to the region’s stock markets, which have been enjoying something of a revival in the second half of 2013. However, the economic outlook in... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are iron ore prices set to tumble? We expect iron ore prices to drop from around $144 per tonne currently to $110 by the end of this year and to fall further thereafter, due to escalating supply and disappointing Chinese demand. 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China still the wildcard Three macro developments should continue to set the tone for industrial commodity prices in the coming months. The end of the euro-zone recession is only a small positive, while the prospect that the... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain and soybean prices still have further to fall We think that the prices of US grains and soybeans are still higher than can be sustained by fundamentals, despite the sharp falls last month. 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: naira devaluation on the cards Our forecasts for a fall in oil prices, coupled with a relatively high rate of domestic inflation, suggest that pressure on the Nigerian naira is likely to build over the next year or so. We think... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to grind lower over the next year Despite the introduction of a new support scheme for coffee farmers in Brazil, we expect the price of arabica coffee to fall from around 120 US cents per lb today to 100 by the end of 2014. This is... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi oil sector’s drag on growth starting to ease Saudi Arabia’s activity data for June provide further evidence that the slowdown in growth over the past year or so probably bottomed out in the second quarter. The non-oil sector continues to grow at... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports surge higher After a year of being pitifully weak, China’s commodity imports rose rapidly in July, in many cases to record highs. This has sparked a rally in commodity prices but we doubt this will be sustained. 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What could be the long term impacts of the shale boom? Shale oil and gas has transformed the energy outlook in the US. However, the impact on the rest of the world has been negligible so far. Other countries are finding it difficult to replicate the... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Plummeting cobalt prices still have further to fall We think that the proposed ban on exporting cobalt concentrates by the largest producing country, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), will be deferred again at the end of this year. As a result... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
