Commodities Update Brent - WTI spread to fall back again We expect the Brent-WTI spread to gradually decrease from about $6 per barrel today to zero over the next year, as logistical constraints in Cushing and Louisiana ease. 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Industrial metals prices to remain weak The prices of industrial metals continued falling during the last month, despite more positive economic news from many advanced economies. We think the prices of most industrial metals are likely to... 4th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Oil production alone won’t solve Ghana’s deficit problems On the face of it, comments yesterday from Ghana’s Finance Minister that oil revenues have been larger than expected this year should ease some concerns over the sustainability of the country’s twin... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodity prices fall despite support from the Fed The Fed’s surprise decision to maintain its current pace of asset purchases for a while longer had little effect on commodity prices. Indeed, the Fed’s caution partly reflects lingering uncertainty... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Demand to play a bigger role in crop price changes After the further sharp falls in corn and soybean prices over the last month we think that most of the new US crop is now priced into the market. However, in contrast to the consensus, we still expect... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvement in China not enough to boost metal prices Industrial metals prices have remained weak today, despite the improvement in the flash PMI for China, which rose to a six month high. We continue to doubt that the rebound in China economy will last... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Detente between the US and Iran to undermine oil prices The markets and media have understandably been focused on developments in Syria for the last few months. However, signs of a possible thaw in the relationship between Washington and Tehran could have... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The environment looks to be winning the war on coal We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as major consuming countries, including China as well as the US, take fresh steps to reduce pollution. 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the Fed decision mean for commodities? After the initial bounce, the Fed’s decision to maintain its current pace of asset purchases for a while longer is unlikely to have any major implications for commodity prices. Precious metals have... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can seasonal demand alone rescue the price of gold? This is the time of the year when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted by a seasonal pick-up in demand. There does indeed appear to be a seasonal pattern in the gold price but, as... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update If the oil market is well supplied, what's keeping prices high? In contrast to OPEC, we think that supply outages from Libya and other producers, as well as wider geopolitical tensions, are playing a key role in keeping oil prices high. 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising China demand won't stop oil prices from falling Despite increasing oil imports by China and other emerging economies, we expect the price of crude to fall as the temporary factors underpinning current high prices are resolved. What’s more, larger... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Oil prices should fall back as conventional supply recovers Crude oil prices are undoubtedly higher than they would otherwise be as a result of disruptions to supply – both actual (notably current outages in Libya) and potential (due to fears of contagion from... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Thai rice price has not quite found its floor yet Despite the dramatic decline in the price of Thai rice over the last month, we still think there is room for further falls. Sales from Thailand’s enormous official stockpiles into an already well... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack More upside for gold than oil? Concerns about the impact of Fed tapering on commodity markets have eased somewhat, partly because of the growing recognition that US monetary policy is likely to remain very loose, and partly because... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Shanghai copper premiums are likely to plummet Copper premiums in Shanghai hit a record high earlier this month but we expect them to fall from around $175 per tonne at present to under $100 over the next six months or so. 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
