Commodities Update How do oil prices, diets and climate change affect food prices? Agricultural commodities are less sensitive to the economic cycle than other commodities such as oil and copper, mainly because, in the short term, income and price elasticities for essential... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The latest data from the EIA suggest that the surge in gasoline stocks may have run its course as demand picks up, but stocks of crude oil are likely to continue to rise. 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn stocks revised down, but still huge Although the price of corn has been boosted by a downward revision to estimated global year-end stock levels, this isn’t enough to alter the underlying market situation. We continue to expect the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper stocks rise again Factors unrelated to physical demand continue to drive stock movements. However, a lull in activity around Chinese new year was also an issue in February. We expect the rise in copper stocks to be... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors continue to reduce long bets on agriculturals Investor enthusiasm for agricultural commodities waned further over the lastmonth. Indeed, for eight of the commodities we cover and have Commitment ofTraders data, five saw a fall in net-long non... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update How do lower rig counts affect oil production? We expect US oil production to peak in the middle of this year as the backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells is used up. This should help support oil prices, especially in the US, in the second half... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can commodity prices resist further dollar strength? The prospect of further gains for the US currency remains a major headwind for commodity prices. However, the dollar has already appreciated a long way and, if it continues to climb, much would still... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese stockpiling to support demand We expect additional Chinese stockpiling to increase demand for agricultural commodities over the next few years. This should add a bit of support to prices, but the fundamentals of individual... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity import data still distorted by holidays China’s commodity import volumes fell in February but this was hardly surprising given the long mid-month holiday. We expect demand to start recovering in March, boosted by low prevailing prices. 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa faces lasting energy crisis South Africa’s energy crisis has grabbed headlines over the past month, with Finance Minister Nlahnlah Nene citing the situation as one factor behind the government decision to cut its 2015 growth... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China unlikely to write a blank cheque for Lat Am The slump in commodity prices since last summer has exposed fragilities in the balance of payments of several economies in Latin America. But while that has left some governments looking to China for... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Payrolls data are not all bad news Most commodity prices fell this week even before the strong US payrolls data raised expectations of early Fed tightening and further dollar strength. While recognising that both developments have... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Why haven’t households spent their gasoline windfall? With the overall economy in good shape, it is only a matter of time before households start to spend more of the cash freed up by the plunge in gasoline prices. Indeed, in recent years households have... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Little to support US steel prices, for now US steel prices have plummeted since late 2014 but perhaps what is more surprising is the fact that they had not fallen earlier. Market conditions suggest prices will continue to struggle this year... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Was that it? The end of the so-called income recession late last year appears to suggest that the direct hit to the Australian economy from the fall in the prices of key commodity exports has already come and gone... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next CBK Governor to face less pressure to start tightening cycle It looks more likely than not that Dr. Haron Sirima will replace Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u as Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, and his appointment is likely be welcomed by the markets as a safe pair... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
