Commodities Update Fed tightening still a near-term threat, but can be offset The gains in commodity prices after yesterday’s dovish statement could soon be more than reversed if the Fed presses ahead and raises rates earlier than the markets now expect, especially if the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead demand to pick up this year A strong outlook for the global auto market, given loose credit conditions, low oil prices and rising incomes in developing countries, should boost lead demand this year. With low stocks and only... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold prices to rebound despite higher US interest rates The conventional view is that the price of gold will inevitably suffer large and sustained falls when the Fed begins to return US interest rates towards more normal levels. But while we would expect... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A jump in US crude imports helped propel oil stocks to yet another record high last week. However, gasoline stocks appear to have peaked, at least for now. 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update New lows for US oil price unlikely to be sustained The renewed decline in the price of the traditional US benchmark crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), to a six-year low of $43 per barrel, overstates the weakness in global oil prices. Other... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What do China’s prospects mean for commodity prices? The growth rate of China’s economy has already halved since 2007, from over 14% to around 7%. What’s more, this slowdown has been the main reason why the prices of many commodities have performed so... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production fall only temporary Another small fall in OPEC’s production still leaves a large supply glut in the market. It won’t be until demand picks up in the second half of this year that the market may rebalance. 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong dollar to put further pressure on price of soybeans The large fall in weekly soybean export sales suggests that the strong dollar is starting to reduce the competitiveness of US exporters. And with a large Brazilian harvest underway, we think the price... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Western investors turning positive on copper Investor sentiment towards copper has been negative since late 2014. While some of copper’s recent price resilience probably has to do with short-covering, there are tentative signs that sentiment is... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices wilt in face of surging dollar Most commodity prices fell further this week, undermined by the continued strength of the US currency and soft economic data from China. The prices of crude oils, especially the traditional US... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold With other analysts reportedly revising down their forecasts and the media coverage almost entirely downbeat, we thought it worth dusting off some of our favourite gold charts. These suggest that the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold With other analysts reportedly revising down their forecasts and the media coverage almost entirely downbeat, we thought it worth dusting off some of our favourite gold charts. These suggest that the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Strong pound masks emerging election concerns On the face of it, markets appear to be taking the prospect of an inconclusive outcome from May’s general election in their stride. Indeed, markets have moved to price in a slightly faster pace of... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Energy prices fall back on high stocks and milder weather It has been a relatively quiet month in energy markets, at least compared to the last few. Oil prices have mostly stabilised although they have dipped a little recently. Meanwhile, milder winter... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we worry about dollar strength? The surge in the US dollar to multi-year highs has triggered many worries, including the threat to the US recovery, heightened risks of global deflation via the impact on commodity prices, and the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s euro-zone industrial production data suggested that industry had a poor start to 2015, with little evidence of a boost from the weaker euro or lower oil prices. 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
