Commodities Chart Pack Industrial commodities lead the pack Some weakness in the US dollar and hope for a delay to the first US interest rate hike helped to support commodity prices in April. Meanwhile, although Chinese economic data showed persistent weakness... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices facing more US dollar headwinds The appreciation of the US dollar since the middle of last year has been a contributing factor in the general decline in agricultural commodity prices. In this Agricultural Commodities Watch we look... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel’s rollercoaster ride may not be over, yet After sliding to six-year lows earlier in the month, nickel prices have rebounded sharply in the last week to around $13,500 per tonne. Although we are positive on the medium-term outlook, the latest... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Non-OPEC & non-US oil production holding up, for now Oil production outside the US and OPEC has been barely affected by the dramatic slump in prices over the last year. However, the effects of lower oil prices are likely to make themselves felt... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide more evidence that the growth in US oil stocks is starting to slow, although it will still be some time before stocks actually fall. 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update El Niño set to arrive, but with limited impact An El Niño weather event is looking more likely this year, albeit current expectations are that it will be weak. The risk to supply disruptions and the potential for higher prices should be minimal. 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Mar.) The raft of weak activity data for Chile, while disappointing, are unlikely to have prevented a robust expansion of GDP in Q1. We suspect that much of last month’s weakness can be explained by the... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Turning the corner The (largely positive) views set out in our first quarterly of 2015 have mostly been proved right. We continue to believe that this will be a year of recovery for commodity prices as a whole... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US rig count continues to drop Another large fall in the US active rig count last week has disappointed those who had hoped it was stabilising. But they probably won’t have to wait too much longer to see a floor. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rally in iron ore prices to prove temporary The recent rally in iron ore prices is reflecting short-term market dynamics, including an upturn in Chinese steel production and somewhat lower stocks. But the bigger picture is that the market... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Has the threat of deflation passed already? Signs that price pressures have picked up a bit during the past month or two have prompted some to suggest that the threat of deflation has vanished almost as suddenly as it appeared. We disagree. In... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Relative calm unlikely to last In a relatively quiet week, oil prices consolidated their recent gains as the consensus swung round to our view that the lows recorded in Q1 would prove to be the turning point. However, powerful... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update High stocks will overshadow lower cotton production Expectations of lower cotton production for this coming year have underpinned a rise in prices. However, with a glut of stocks, we still think the price will end the year lower. 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices should pick up Having fallen sharply since late-2014, we expect US steel prices to stabilise and pick up over the course of this year owing to resilient domestic demand. That said, our forecast also assumes that the... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Asia Cocoa Grindings (Q1 2015) Data on Asia’s Q1 cocoa grindings showed a 9.3% y/y decline, the third consecutive y/y fall. This follows declines announced last week in Europe and North America. 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The continued deterioration in China’s manufacturing sector signalled by early business surveys for April is disappointing, but the prices of key industrial metals have already factored in a lot of... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
