OPEC Watch OPEC expects to increase market share OPEC’s oil production appears to have levelled off in the last two months after surging earlier this year. But it will still take years for demand to catch up with supply and the market to rebalance. 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks tell a broadly positive story on demand Falling official stocks are painting a much stronger picture of metals’ demand than current prices. Inventories of some metals, notably tin and lead, offer little in the way of a cushion if supply... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fed rate hikes take a backseat to low oil prices in the Gulf The Gulf’s commitment to dollar pegs mean that rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve will be imported to the region, adding to the headwinds facing economic growth. But this is a secondary concern... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Gold proves resilient despite upcoming US rate hike The prices of precious metals (PMs) have fallen since mid-August as sentiment towards commodities in general continued to worsen, although performance was mixed. A further slump in Chinese equities... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global corn & soybean inventories cut, but still no shortage The price of corn rallied late last week as the USDA cut its estimates of the US corn yield and global end-year stocks. But with high inventories likely to endure, we think prices will end the year... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Exports also hit by commodity price falls It is widely understood that the value of China’s imports has been pulled down by falling commodity prices. Less well appreciated is that lower commodity prices also explain in large part why China’s... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response US silver imports and exports (Jun.) US silver imports rose in June after a weak May, but exports of semi-manufactured silver slumped, suggesting weak industrial demand from the rest of the world. Meanwhile, retail appetite for physical... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly First Fed hike unlikely to be a game-changer A recovery in sentiment toward the Chinese economy lifted the prices of key industrial metals in the past week, although oil suffered from fears of further over-supply following the lifting of... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What next for oil prices? The easing of sanctions on Iran will add to the supply of oil on world markets, but it should not be the game-changer for prices that some imagine. Instead, we think the more important factors will be... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: Problems under the hood Planned mine closures will deal a heavy blow to Zambia’s copper-dependent economy. But the country’s economic problems run deeper than the current fall in copper prices. We expect that the country... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Restocking to galvanise US steel prices US steel prices have fallen sharply this year, despite signs of robust physical demand. Given that imports have also dropped, we expect that stocks have been drawn down. Resilient demand coupled with... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to the new cocoa harvest could keep prices elevated A lack of rainfall in the key cocoa growing countries in West Africa has increased the risk of a poor harvest for the 2015/16 year, adding upside risks to the outlook for the price of cocoa. 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fresh commodity price weakness weighs on EM exports EM exports fell sharply in July on the back of the renewed drop in global commodity prices. And the early data suggest that things are unlikely to have improved last month either. 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Will the supply response be sufficient to lift prices? A number of mining companies have recently announced plans to cut output or close mines and smelters in response to low prices. These latest announcements come on top of earlier cost-cutting exercises... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose again last week due to a combination of lower refinery inputs and still-high import volumes. 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jul.) South Africa PGM production fell in July below the levels observed in 2012 and 2013 at this time of the year. Low prices are threatening miners’ profitability. As such, we expect production growth to... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
