Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the escalating conflict in Yemen The unfolding crisis in Yemen and the commencement of air strikes by Saudi Arabia and its allies on the Houthi rebels has raised concerns of a broader regional conflict. We suspect that the worst of... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch A year of two halves The widening of the Brent – WTI spread has captured headlines again recently. In this Energy Watch we explain why the price of WTI has been lagging Brent and examine the outlook for the price of the... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigerian politics take centre stage All eyes are focused on Nigeria’s election on 28th March, which will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Analysing the drivers of the nickel price We expect nickel demand to pick up this year supported by a rebound in global stainless steel output. With refined nickel production in China likely to fall owing to problems with sourcing ore and... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Oil and gasoline stocks continued to diverge last week as drivers took further advantage of low fuel prices. 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia refuses to budge Even though oil prices continue to languish at around $55pb, there is still no sign that Saudi Arabia will give in to pressure from other OPEC members to cut oil output. Oil Minister, Ali al-Naimi... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What hope for sugar prices? The world price of sugar has fallen to a six-year low. While recent weakness can be attributed to the fall in the value of the Brazilian real and a decision by India to re-introduce export subsidies... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Possible flaws in the ‘‘iron ore plan’’ The ongoing surge in iron ore supply had been expected, but perhaps what has taken markets by surprise is the increasing likelihood that demand could falter, even at these low prices. We think prices... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton price to fall despite market moving into deficit Even though the world cotton market is likely to move into deficit this coming year, huge global stocks and increased competitiveness of synthetic fibres should drag the price of cotton lower. 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Are lower oil prices a net negative for the US after all? Our initial view that lower oil prices would be a net positive for the real economy is not borne out in the first quarter data. The negative impact on mining investment almost outweighed the positive... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dovish Fed cheers commodity markets Hints that the Fed will keep US interest rates low by past standards even when it does start to return them towards more normal levels took the steam out of the rally in the dollar and supported... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for February show a 4.6% m/m fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. However, data for the first two months of the year suggest it is too soon to factor... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Time to think again about US natural gas prices? A relatively mild winter, at least across most of the country, and a continued increase in production have allowed gas stocks to rebuild and prices to fall. However, a fall in the number rigs drilling... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A looming fall in gas exports adds to concerns in Russia Because Russia’s export gas price seems to follow oil prices with a six to nine month lag, the recent fall in oil prices has not yet fully fed into Russia’s gas export earnings. Admittedly, gas... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar heat wilts agricultural prices It was a poor month for agricultural commodity markets as the bear that is the US dollar continues to put downward pressure on prices. Coffee and sugar prices in particular fared poorly as the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Stronger dollar dominates Commodity prices have been dragged lower across the board by the strength of the dollar over the last month. Concerns about Chinese demand have also weighed on prices, particularly of industrial... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
