Commodities Update US Employment Report (Apr.) The monthly US employment report can often trigger large movements in global commodity prices. April’s data, released today, have so far been an exception. Nonetheless, the numbers support our view... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US and euro-zone government bonds? While government bonds in the US and the euro-zone have both been rattled by a rebound in the price of oil, we think other factors will start to play a more important role in determining their fate. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports up strongly in April China’s commodity imports, with the exception of oil, remained relatively subdued in April. However, we expect import growth to pick up in tandem with higher government spending on infrastructure. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Prices rally as investors turn positive The S&P GSCI industrial metals index fell sharply in May and under-performed other commodities. Renewed strength in the dollar coupled with subdued Chinese economic data undermined investor sentiment... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices will struggle to rally further The recent bounce back in oil prices has prompted speculation about whether they are about to return to the $100 per barrel levels of the last few years. However, there are some major headwinds, both... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the rebound in oil prices a threat to the global recovery? Oil prices have recovered to levels that should still provide a major boost to consumers, while easing the pressure on producers. However, further increases could undermine the recovery in weaker... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers yet to spend their oil windfall... GDP growth was faster in the euro-zone than in the US in Q1, but we don’t expect this to be the start of a new trend. The single currency area has received a temporary boost from the fall in the euro... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update FAO Food Outlook (May 2015) The FAO’s initial forecast for world cereal production, including wheat and corn, is for a fall in 2015, after two years of consecutive record harvests. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Policy unchanged in Norway, but rate cut still on the cards The Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but we suspect that a weakening labour market and faltering economic growth will prompt a rate cut at its next meeting in June. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: why oil prices have provided little support for shilling Lower oil prices should have reduced Kenya’s wide trade deficit and taken some of the pressure off the struggling Kenyan shilling, but the currency was Sub-Saharan Africa’s worst-performing last month... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide the best evidence yet that US oil stocks are at least levelling out and maybe about to start to trend lower. What’s more, the data also showed a further increase in demand and... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How strong is the $1,200 floor for gold? The gold price has closed below $1,200 per ounce, having been above that level the day before, on 15 occasions since January 2011. However, it has never remained below $1,200 for longer than 15 days... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investor sentiment diverging, but for how long? Over the past month the S&P GSCI agriculture index has continued to fall, weighed down by large declines in the prices of corn and wheat due to improving supply prospects. As a result, the index... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone outperformance will be short-lived The euro-zone economy looks likely to have outgrown both those of the US and UK in the first quarter of the year, for the first time since Q1 2011. But the outperformance looks set to be short-lived... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch The “new normal” for Chinese steel There has been much talk about the “new normal” for the Chinese economy, involving slower and more sustainable growth. In this Metals & Mining Watch, we discuss the implications of the “new normal”... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Investor sentiment improves Base metals prices rose strongly this week, in large part owing to renewed investor interest. Data suggesting persistent weakness in China’s economy are fostering hopes of additional stimulus measures... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
