Global Markets Update What next for the Norwegian krone? The Norwegian krone has been the worst-performing G-10 currency since the middle of last year – it has lost more than a quarter of its value against the US dollar. Still, given the prospects for the... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices likely to recover well before soybeans Sugar and soybean prices have followed similar paths in recent years. But while the fundamentals areturning in favour of sugar, the same factors point to further weakness for soybean prices. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the slump in commodity prices a good recession signal? At face value the plunge in commodity prices over the last year is consistent with a global recession as severe as that in 2008-09. However, this time it almost certainly is different. The latest... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (July) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium productiongrew by nearly 11% y/y in July. But excluding China, output rose by just 1.3% y/y. 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Growing disparities in Gulf fiscal policy The past month has brought further signs of diverging attitudes in the Gulf to dealing with the fiscal headache caused by low oil prices. If media reports are to be believed, the UAE looks set to... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) Norway’s Q2 GDP data showed that lower energy prices continued to weigh on the oil and gas sector. But the mainland economy also slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks rose last week as a number of US refineries performed maintenance. But demand for products remained high, meaning stocks of gasoline fell. 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices go into reverse After a generally positive mid-June to mid-July period, the prices of mostagricultural commodities have since gone into reverse, with many sufferingheavy falls. Indeed, six of the eleven commodities... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Industrial Production (Jul.) The raft of Russian activity data for July, released today, showed that the economy continued to contract by 4-5% y/y at the start of Q3. And the latest drop in oil prices means that the fall in... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Fears, not facts, driving copper prices lower The recent slump in copper prices has more to do with investors’ fears about China’s future copperdemand, than with the reality of Chinese copper usage. As such, we would expect a sharp rebound... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Recovery in drilling activity likely to be temporary We doubt that the rise in the number of active drilling rigs in the US over the last few weeks will continue for much longer, despite improvements in efficiency. A renewed decline should weigh on US... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Why hasn’t China’s new resource tax led to higher REE prices? The costs of rare earth elements (REEs) have continued to fall despite China’s new tax regime. However, we think that it is only a matter of time before higher taxes and positive demandfundamentals... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead and zinc markets set to tighten Subdued demand in the first half of this year meant that the lead and zinc markets were in surplus. However, with supply expected to tighten and demand to strengthen, prices should pick up from here. 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price to be supported by central banks’ buying In the last month, China has added a further 19 tonnes to its official holdings of gold. This supports our view that China’s gold accumulation will continue and that official purchases will be one of... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why this is not the Asian Financial Crisis MK2 The recent depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit against the dollar has left both currencies at levels not seen since 1998, but suggestions that this signals a re-run of the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Buoyant oil sector supports strong growth in Saudi Arabia Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to grow by over 5% y/y at the end of Q2, supported by strong growth in the oil sector. However, with Iranian oil set to return to the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
