Commodities Weekly “Grexit” could boost gold now, other commodities later Weather-related factors were responsible for the biggest moves in individual commodity prices in the past week: a cold snap in the US drove up the cost of natural gas, while further rains across key... 20th February 2015 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Surely aluminium premiums have to fall soon? Aluminium price premiums should fall in 2015 based on supply and demand fundamentals. Admittedly, they have not been easy to justify on these grounds for some time. But we think changing dynamics in... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update USDA Weekly Export Sales (12th Feb.) Today’s US weekly export sales data show a further slump in demand for US wheat. And while exports of soybeans also fell sharply, this is likely, at least in part, to be due to seasonal factors... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4) Mexican GDP growth accelerated to 2.6% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year, but the economy has yet to really take off. With fiscal policy set to be tightened further over the course of this year... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for January 2015 showed a fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. It could be that the oversupply in the Chinese market is at last leading to producer... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dip into deflation will be brief This week we expect to learn that, principally because of the recent collapse in energy prices, US headline inflation plummeted into negative territory in January. Once the temporary effects from... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Whatever happened to the super-cycle? The much-hyped “super-cycle” of rising commodity prices, driven by rapid growth in China since the early 2000s, probably ended some years ago. Future cycles are likely to be smaller in magnitude, and... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply prospects boost cotton but weigh on arabica Agricultural commodities have faced a number of opposing pressures over the last month, including the further strengthening of the US dollar and the partial recovery in the price of crude oil. But... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There is no sign of a drop off in US oil production in the latest data, nor any pick-up in demand, as US oil stocks surge again. 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lower oil prices start to weigh on FX reserves in the Gulf The plunge in oil prices means that current account positions in parts of the Gulf have slipped from surplus into deficit. In these countries, FX reserves are now being drawn upon to finance external... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How sensitive are gold prices to the Chinese New Year? The demand for gold often follows a seasonal pattern due to the timing of festivals associated with gift-giving, such as the Chinese New Year. But the calendar appears to have little impact on the... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of the Petrobras scandal It’s difficult to be precise, but we think the direct impact of the corruption scandal at Petrobras, including the effects of reduced investment by the company and others that have been implicated... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How are lower oil prices affecting inflation? The drop in global oil prices since mid-2014 will push many advanced economies into deflation, but the trough will vary considerably between economies. And while inflation should rebound rapidly in... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas to burn brighter this year A combination of lower production and higher demand means that US natural gas prices should rise over the next few years, regardless of the weather. 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Why is gold sliding again? Today’s 2% fall means that gold has now given up most of its price gains from earlier this year. This is perhaps surprising given the ongoing uncertainty over Greece and the conflict in Ukraine, but... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Dwindling surpluses to boost nickel prices Falling ore stocks at China’s ports and lower ore exports from the Philippines are likely to curb Chinese refined nickel output this year. Given steady demand growth, prices should rebound. 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
