Commodities Update Further changes to China’s corn policy are likely The proposal to cut the price paid to China’s corn farmers for state stockholding purchases is unlikely to be sufficient to tackle the country’s growing corn stocks. Indeed, we think further reforms... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) Today’s weak manufacturing PMI reading from China has contributed to the negative sentiment towards commodities, but the data are not as disastrous as some of the headlines have implied. The euro-zone... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria: low oil prices force authorities into action Algeria was ill-prepared to confront a period of low oil prices and, as we warned might happen, the authorities have reacted by letting the dinar weaken, while a sharp fiscal squeeze is now on the... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s import data show some areas of strength The latest data on China’s imports and exports do not paint a picture of a slump in domestic demand. But there are nuances, with imports of some metals holding up better than others. 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese imports ease in August, but after a strong July The detailed Chinese import data show an easing of demand for many agricultural commodities in August. However, the bigger picture is that demand remains robust. 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal prices still have further to fall We think that coal prices will probably continue to decline over the next few years as demand is diminished by competing fuels and environmental concerns, especially in China. In addition, supply... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium output grew by over 10%y/y in August. But excluding China, output rose by a mere 2% y/y. 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Flagging up the risks to copper mine supply The earthquake that hit Chile yesterday served as a reminder of the vulnerability of the copper market to disrupted mine output from key producing countries. With El Niño underway, persistent strike... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Gold one of the few beneficiaries of Fed’s hesitancy Commodity markets initially welcomed the US central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, but the mood soon cooled. Indeed, the Fed’s hesitancy only appears to have reinforced... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Five key numbers for crude oil markets The oil market is inundated with thousands of different statistics regarding production, consumption and trade on a daily basis. In this Update we pick five figures which we consider to be the most... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What should the Fed’s inaction mean for commodities? Commodity markets initially welcomed the US central bank’s decision to keep rates on hold yesterday, but the moves have been small. This makes sense, as rates are still likely to rise soon, and the... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel prices to rally strongly next year With the market expected to fall into deficit in 2016, as supply falls and demand recovers, the price of nickel should rebound strongly. But the recovery may have to wait until stockpiles are drawn... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices remain under pressure Seven of the main agricultural commodities have seen prices fall since mid-August despite some softness in the US dollar which is normally considered supportive of dollar-priced commodities. Of the... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2) The disappointingly soft rebound in GDP in the second quarter supports our below consensus forecasts that the economy will grow by just 2.0% this year and that the RBNZ will cut interest rates from 2... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A relatively quiet end to summer Although the main commodity indices weakened further since mid-August, given the mid-summer volatility it has been a relativity calm last few weeks. Attention has now turned back to the US Fed... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s report was full of surprises with crude oil stocks falling and gasoline stock surging. However, this was mainly driven by the return of some refineries from unexpected maintenance. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
