Energy Update Rally in coal prices likely to be short-lived The rally in coal prices this year is unlikely to be the start of a sustained turnaround in fortunes for the beleaguered market. Stronger demand from India may continue to support prices over the next... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to make of record-low dry freight costs The further decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), to its lowest level since the series was first compiled in 1985, provides some more colour on current trends in the supply and demand for ships and... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela’s currency crisis: a primer The collapse in oil prices will cause the economic and financial crisis in Venezuela to deepen over the course of this year. In this Focus we answer a series of key questions that we have received... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are consumers spending their oil windfall? Although real household incomes among net consumers have been boosted by the fall in oil prices, this has yet to translate into a surge in spending. But we still expect consumption in advanced... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong dollar likely to dent US soybean exports US wheat exports have struggled this year as the rising US dollar reduces competitiveness. We think the same could happen to soybean exports as the South American harvest gets under way. 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Recovery in oil prices may falter soon The rebound in global oil prices has lifted Brent crude back to $61 per barrel, slightly above our existing forecast for the end of the year but consistent with our central scenario of a recovery to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Gold and silver to shine despite likely US rate hikes It would be wrong to write off gold this year purely on the basis that the Fed is likely to start to raise interest rates, probably in June. We expect the withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the US to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices likely to continue to rise, but slowly The rebound in the price of Brent over the last two weeks supports our view that oil prices will gradually climb back to around $70 per barrel over the medium term helped on their way by further... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Strong demand to lift palladium prices Expectations of strong growth in US and Chinese auto output and sales in 2015 underpin our forecast of a recovery in palladium prices. At the same time, supply remains constrained. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Oil price slump bad news for Texas and North Dakota The collapse in crude oil prices does not bode well for Texas and North Dakota, the two key producers of shale oil. These states have experienced a surge in oil production since 2008 and are now... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Jan.) India’s trade deficit narrowed in January as the sharp fall in global oil prices continued to feed through to the import bill. The smaller deficit provides the central bank with further scope to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil edging towards an energy crisis An intensifying drought in Brazil has made it increasingly likely that the authorities will implement some form of power rationing over the coming months. Much remains uncertain, but we think that... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus What next for global metals demand? Concerns about global growth prospects, and particularly the slowdown in China, have reportedly been a key factor in the recent falls in metals prices. However, we would argue that these fears are... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Prospects of supply cuts boost oil and coal prices The main story since the beginning of the year has been the recovery in the price of oil, which is now 20% above its recent lows, reflecting the first signs of supply cuts in response to the previous... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for weaker growth, North Africa to outperform The fall in oil prices has led to a sharp reversal of fortunes in the Middle East and North Africa. Fears of steep falls in output in the Gulf are overdone, but growth will weaken in the coming years... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices to remain in the doldrums Lower input costs, weakening demand and overproduction led to sharp falls in Chinese steel prices over the last year. In our view, these factors will continue to weigh on the Chinese steel market in... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
