Industrial Metals Update Possible flaws in the ‘‘iron ore plan’’ The ongoing surge in iron ore supply had been expected, but perhaps what has taken markets by surprise is the increasing likelihood that demand could falter, even at these low prices. We think prices... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton price to fall despite market moving into deficit Even though the world cotton market is likely to move into deficit this coming year, huge global stocks and increased competitiveness of synthetic fibres should drag the price of cotton lower. 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Are lower oil prices a net negative for the US after all? Our initial view that lower oil prices would be a net positive for the real economy is not borne out in the first quarter data. The negative impact on mining investment almost outweighed the positive... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dovish Fed cheers commodity markets Hints that the Fed will keep US interest rates low by past standards even when it does start to return them towards more normal levels took the steam out of the rally in the dollar and supported... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for February show a 4.6% m/m fall in global steel output, led by Asian producers. However, data for the first two months of the year suggest it is too soon to factor... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Time to think again about US natural gas prices? A relatively mild winter, at least across most of the country, and a continued increase in production have allowed gas stocks to rebuild and prices to fall. However, a fall in the number rigs drilling... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A looming fall in gas exports adds to concerns in Russia Because Russia’s export gas price seems to follow oil prices with a six to nine month lag, the recent fall in oil prices has not yet fully fed into Russia’s gas export earnings. Admittedly, gas... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar heat wilts agricultural prices It was a poor month for agricultural commodity markets as the bear that is the US dollar continues to put downward pressure on prices. Coffee and sugar prices in particular fared poorly as the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Stronger dollar dominates Commodity prices have been dragged lower across the board by the strength of the dollar over the last month. Concerns about Chinese demand have also weighed on prices, particularly of industrial... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fed tightening still a near-term threat, but can be offset The gains in commodity prices after yesterday’s dovish statement could soon be more than reversed if the Fed presses ahead and raises rates earlier than the markets now expect, especially if the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead demand to pick up this year A strong outlook for the global auto market, given loose credit conditions, low oil prices and rising incomes in developing countries, should boost lead demand this year. With low stocks and only... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold prices to rebound despite higher US interest rates The conventional view is that the price of gold will inevitably suffer large and sustained falls when the Fed begins to return US interest rates towards more normal levels. But while we would expect... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A jump in US crude imports helped propel oil stocks to yet another record high last week. However, gasoline stocks appear to have peaked, at least for now. 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update New lows for US oil price unlikely to be sustained The renewed decline in the price of the traditional US benchmark crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), to a six-year low of $43 per barrel, overstates the weakness in global oil prices. Other... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What do China’s prospects mean for commodity prices? The growth rate of China’s economy has already halved since 2007, from over 14% to around 7%. What’s more, this slowdown has been the main reason why the prices of many commodities have performed so... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production fall only temporary Another small fall in OPEC’s production still leaves a large supply glut in the market. It won’t be until demand picks up in the second half of this year that the market may rebalance. 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
