China Activity Monitor No sign of crisis in latest activity data After the drama of the past few days, our updated China Activity Proxy (CAP) tells a relatively reassuring story about the state of China’s economy. 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Falling stocks may boost some metals’ prices Exchange stocks of copper remain high and have risen strongly since the start of 2015. However, stocks of other metals, notably tin and lead, are now at very low levels on a historical basis. This may... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The price of US lumber set for strong recovery The price of US lumber has continued to fall since early June. But with single family unit starts andindustry confidence strengthening, we think that the price of lumber will end the year higher. 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf unlikely to be flustered by latest drop in oil prices The drop in oil prices over the past couple of months is unlikely to cause policymakers in the GCC countries to panic. The region’s large reserves mean that most countries are under little immediate... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC to resist calls to cut output We think that OPEC will remain steadfast in its policy of maintaining high output, despite the renewed slump in oil prices and the potential return of exports from Iran. 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun.) Although the latest data show stronger output in the South African PGM sector in June, the risk of strike action has risen in the last month and the potential for further power disruption remains. We... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA equity markets take a bruising Equity markets across the MENA region have been hit hard over the past month against the backdrop of the general turmoil in global financial markets and a fresh drop in oil prices. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sticking with (most of) our forecasts for developed markets We have reviewed our key forecasts for developed markets in light of the renewed slump in China’s stock market and related panic. Despite the turmoil, for now we are retaining our existing forecasts... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunge in oil prices will force BoJ to step up easing Further falls in crude oil prices are making it even harder for the Bank of Japan to hit its inflation target. Despite some sanguine comments from Prime Minister Abe today, we think these price falls... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in oil prices mean for Russia? The latest plunge in global oil prices and the associated depreciation of the ruble have added to what was already a bleak picture for the Russian economy and reinforce our view that this year’s... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil not the only worry Nigeria’s economy has struggled this year, with the most obvious cause being the recent collapse of global oil prices. But this isn’t the only obstacle to faster growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Don’t bet on further big falls in the Canadian dollar Markets still appear to be speculating on further declines in the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar but, after a 20% decline over the past 12 months, we believe that there is little scope for any... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China panic spreads The negative sentiment prompted by the slide in the renminbi has been compounded by further weakness in Chinese equities and another soft reading of the country’s manufacturing PMI. What’s more... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will China become a net-exporter of coal? The depreciation of the Chinese currency alongwith declining consumption and imports of coalhave raised the question of whether China,currently the world’s largest importer of coal, could soon switch... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch A brighter future for gold prices The price of gold has been undermined this year by the strength of the dollar and rising bond yields as the first hike in US interest rates approaches. Indeed, we continue to expect one more dip from... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China, Japan & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) The weak manufacturing PMI reading from China may have been distorted bytemporary factors and the manufacturing sector has yet to feel the full benefit of policyeasing. Nonetheless, today's Chinese... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
