Canada Economics Weekly Economy stronger in March, but housing still an issue Following February’s only modest decline in GDP, the economy is on track to do better than the Bank of Canada expected in the first half of the year. But the most recent housing data and this week’s... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz in no rush to re-consider rate hikes There was never any doubt that the Bank of Canada would keep policy unchanged when it met earlier this week, although its decision to drop any reference to future interest rate hikes from its policy... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed signals for the Bank A slew of data releases this week presented mixed signals for the Bank of Canada ahead of next week’s policy meeting. Although core inflation has picked up and the economy probably performed a bit... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rebound to have only muted benefit The recent rebound in oil prices would normally be great news for the Canadian economy. But with regulatory concerns and capacity constraints likely to hold back investment in the energy sector and... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly A further dovish shift from the Bank? During a speech this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz refused to commit to the possibility of further rate hikes and suggested that the neutral range was not a good target for investors to... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong January likely followed by weak February The consensus-beating jump in monthly GDP in January means that first-quarter growth will not be as weak as we previously expected. Growth will still be well below potential, though, and our forecast... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Morneau gambles on the housing market In his 2019 budget Finance Minister Bill Morneau revealed extra spending amounting to a modest 0.2% of GDP, which will not materially change the outlook. By introducing a policy to help first-time... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget 2019 unlikely to drive pick-up in growth In the 2019 Budget, Finance Minister Bill Morneau is likely to announce some headline-grabbing policies to please voters ahead of October’s federal election. We doubt that they will amount to much in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank rows back from further rate hikes The Bank of Canada admitted this week that it had been caught out by the broad-based nature of the recent economic slowdown. But its forecasts continue to envisage a strong rebound in growth, which we... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Optimistic investment plans unlikely to be met The Annual Capital and Repair Expenditures survey revealed that firms expect to raise their investment by 2.8% this year. However, with the economic backdrop deteriorating since the survey was carried... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Uncertain Poloz ponders powers Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz used a speech this week to argue that relying on monetary policy alone to counteract economic downturns risks further stoking financial imbalances. While Poloz... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil by rail exports plummet, USMCA hurdles mount Alberta’s oil production cuts have successfully reduced the Canadian oil price discount compared with US benchmarks, but their success has produced some unintended negative consequences. 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak housing market weighs on credit growth Data this week confirmed that annual mortgage credit growth slowed to a 35-year low of just 3.1% in December, with the slowdown reflecting subdued home sales and lower house price inflation. More... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wilkins keeps quiet on rate hikes, GDP contracts Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins this week outlined the Bank of Canada’s thinking on wage growth. But by failing to repeat the Bank’s normal mantra about raising interest rates further, what... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak November a sign of things to come At Davos this week, Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated that the Bank of Canada will remain data dependent with respect to the pace of future interest rate hikes. With GDP set to have contracted in... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home sales fall, inflation to drop back The data this week confirmed that Canadian home sales finished 2018 on a weak note, while inflation jumped back up to 2% at the end of the year. Housing sales are unlikely to rebound strongly, while... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
