Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s thinking full of holes Governor Stephen Poloz struck a positive tone following the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged this week. Although officials remain optimistic, we think there are flaws in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Challenging landscape greets Bank of Canada Officials at the Bank of Canada face a challenging landscape when they meet next week. Not only have global markets been volatile, but the Canadian yield curve has moved closer to inversion territory... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz maintains upbeat tone despite oil price slump In an interview this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz seemed fairly relaxed about the economic outlook. But with inflationary pressures fading, oil prices falling again and exporters... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian oil price rally will soon lose steam While Canadian oil prices have rallied in recent weeks, we expect discounts against international oil benchmarks to widen again next year, which will weigh heavily on energy investment and economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank wants to hike, but doesn’t know when The Bank of Canada reiterated this week that it intends to raise the policy rate at least three more times, but acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the pace of those hikes. Investors appear to be... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus turns to Bank of Canada This week’s media coverage painted far too positive a picture of foreign direct investment in Canada, which remains lower than a year ago and after the recent slump in oil prices is likely to... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Morneau gets competitive; Bank ponders framework The increased depreciation tax allowance in the fall update was generally well received by businesses, but the recent slump in oil prices means that it is unlikely to prevent investment growth from... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie proves resilient to slump in oil prices The slump in oil prices this week is undoubtedly bad for the economy, but we’re not convinced by reports of an imminent 6% cut in oil production. While the loonie proved resilient to the drop in oil... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Doubts about USMCA, positive signs from housing While the US midterm results mean that there is now even more uncertainty about when the USMCA might be signed by Congress, we do not think that the trade deal itself is in doubt. Meanwhile, there... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly PMI hints at slowing momentum While the data this week revealed that GDP was better than expected in August, the growth rate nevertheless slowed. Combined with September’s trade data which showed a fall in manufacturing exports... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank aiming for at least three more hikes As well as hiking interest rates to 1.75% this week, the Bank of Canada explicitly confirmed that it intends to raise the policy rate back to its estimate of the neutral rate. We doubt it will make it... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly From pot to Poloz After the legalisation of cannabis this week, next week the spotlight turns to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate announcement. The Bank looks set to raise interest rates for the third time this year... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slumping Canadian oil prices to dampen investment The steep falls in equities this week are bad enough, but it is the collapse in Canadian oil prices that could have more significant macroeconomic effects. If the capacity constraints that have caused... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly USMCA boosts rates, adding pressure to housing The changes to Canada’s trading relationship with the US and Mexico do not, on their own, have big implications for the economy. By removing uncertainty, the agreement will help to keep economic... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Auto tariffs a risk as trade talks drag on Comments from US President Donald Trump this week gave little indication that he is about to trigger the six-month NAFTA withdrawal period, but there is a rising risk of the US imposing auto tariffs... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investors under-pricing NAFTA risks The loonie continued to appreciate against the greenback this week, despite there seemingly being little chance of the US and Canada reaching a NAFTA deal before the month-end deadline. Investors... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
