Canada Economics Weekly US keeps the heat on in NAFTA negotiations The NAFTA negotiations appeared to be winding down quietly since there was no longer enough time left for the US Congress to pass legislation before the end of this year. But President Donald Trump... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising rates add to pressure on housing Home sales dropped to a five-year low in April and the surge in interest rates suggests the downward trend in sales has further to run. Although the Bank of Canada is still on the fence regarding the... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil price unlikely to spur investment boom The US decision to exit the Iran nuclear accord pushed crude oil prices up to four-year highs this week, but prices are probably still too low to trigger a renewed investment boom in the Canadian oil... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz far too sanguine on debt build-up Earlier this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz gave a remarkably sanguine speech on the build-up in household debt. He concluded that, although record-high debt represented a risk and means... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal would boost foreign investment This week brought a furious last-minute push from all sides to reach a provisional deal on updating NAFTA, ahead of July’s Mexican presidential election. The US congressional mid-term elections won’t... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price surge having only limited impact on dollar The recent resurgence in oil prices should be good news for Canada but, since it is partly due to a temporary spike in geopolitical tensions, we expect prices to fall back later this year. Domestic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market remains muted Earlier this week we learned that, according to Teranet, national house price inflation slowed to a two-year low of 6.6% in March, from 7.5% in February and a recent peak of 14.2% in mid-2017. Based... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal wouldn't lead to higher interest rates The US administration appears to be pushing hard to get a deal done on NAFTA, reigniting speculation of further interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada. Even if a trade deal is done, however... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour data point to slower consumption growth The incoming labour market data provide further evidence of a potential household-led slowdown in economic growth this quarter. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada won’t risk increasing... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Heavy oil price benchmark likely to rebound Prices of domestic heavy crude oil appear to be going sideways, despite rising world oil prices. This trend has persisted for a few months, but there are still good reasons to believe that these heavy... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Middle-class families still struggling The 2016 Canadian Income Survey shows that the median household hasn’t benefitted meaningfully from economic growth in recent years. Real incomes of middle-class families have been largely stagnant... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's underperformance to persist The Canadian dollar rebounded yesterday following the confirmation that Canada’s economy will be exempt from US tariffs on steel and aluminium. It isn’t out of the woods yet, however. NAFTA’s future... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining tax competitiveness hurting investment The 2018 Federal budget delivered earlier this week, which kept corporate income tax rates unchanged, failed to address the unease among executives about business taxation, in light of the large tax... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending losing momentum There are some tentative signs that the past tightening in mortgage rules and increase in interest rates are beginning to have an impact beyond housing by negatively impacting household spending too... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation to remain muted Global bond markets have been shaken by the recent run of stronger wage and price inflation figures in the US. Although we have long expected that a rebound in core inflation south of the border would... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing faces tighter regulation and higher rates The early regional evidence from Toronto and Vancouver revealed that the tightening of mortgage lending standards at the start of this year did hit home sales in January, but the declines were not... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
