Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA talks drag on; housing remains vulnerable The NAFTA negotiations between Canada and the US rumbled on this week, with few signs of a breakthrough during what Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland described as a “continuous negotiation”... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada plays down trade risks While the Bank of Canada this week acknowledged the uncertainty created by the ongoing NAFTA negotiations, it also played down the risks of a further deterioration in trade relations. However, given... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada to take spotlight from NAFTA talks While the US and Canada are aiming to reach a compromise over NAFTA today, at this stage it’s still unclear whether this will happen. Either way, next week the Bank of Canada will take the spotlight... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending growth set to slow Consumer spending growth appears to have rebounded to about 2% annualised in the second quarter. But with real wage gains set to slow further, even that fairly-moderate growth rate seems unlikely to... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falls in commodity prices highlight external risks The declines in commodity prices this week following the crisis in Turkey highlighted the connections that make Canada more vulnerable than many advanced economies to developments elsewhere in the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Saudi storm won’t cause economic damage The sudden escalation in political tensions between Canada and Saudi Arabia this week seems alarming, but investors are right not to fret about the consequences. After all, Canada sends just 0.2% of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds of a H2 interest rate hike increase Although May’s strong GDP growth partly reflected a rebound from earlier weakness, it was nevertheless encouraging and June’s trade data suggest that the economy ended the second quarter on a high... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Resumption of NAFTA talks the easy part The more conciliatory tone adopted by Washington in trade talks this week bodes well for the future of NAFTA. But with the US administration also confirming that Canada is viewed as a national... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong oil production masking weakness elsewhere The economy appears to have had a stellar month in May, with a potential monthly gain in GDP of almost 1% implying that growth over the second quarter as a whole was close to 3% in annualised terms... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank still too sanguine about the housing market The Bank of Canada appears increasingly confident in the economic outlook, but we think that its forecasts for GDP growth will prove to be too optimistic. Following this week’s increase in the policy... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed employment survey makes Bank’s job harder The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement will take the spotlight next week. Despite June’s Labour Force Survey being something of a mixed bag, the subsequent rise in the Canadian dollar suggests that... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the construction sector in trouble? June’s employment figures, due for release next Friday, will confirm whether the recent signs of weakness in construction were just a temporary blip, possibly weather-related, or something more... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Dollar driven by rate outlook rather than trade fears The Canadian dollar hit a 12-month low this week, dropping to 75 cents against the US dollar. It started this year above 80 cents. Despite that decline, markets appear to be sanguine about the risks... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt will remain a risk for years to come The news earlier this week that household debt had edged down to 168.0% of disposable incomes in the first quarter, from 169.7% in the final quarter of last year, was greeted by some as confirmation... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investment boom already beginning to fade The strength of business investment has been one of the economy’s few bright spots over the past couple of quarters, but that surge in capex has done little to boost the economy’s still mediocre... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s hawkishness already looks premature The Bank of Canada issued a relatively hawkish policy statement on Wednesday this week, which increased speculation that another interest rate hike was coming, possibly as soon as July. But within... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
