Canada Economics Weekly Bond yields to rise as Bank cuts purchases Recent global developments and the signal this week from the Bank of Canada, that it is likely to cut its asset purchases sooner than we expected, lead us to think that Canadian bond yields will rise... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Vaccinations set to ramp up While the government hinted this week that the vaccination program could be completed before the target of September, the threat of vaccine nationalism elsewhere means that, with Canada reliant on... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to upgrade forecasts in April The Bank of Canada looks set to upgrade its GDP forecasts in April, but we would be surprised if it turned much more hawkish with regards to policy. 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy more reliant than ever on housing The fourth-quarter national accounts showed that residential investment now accounts for a record share of GDP. While some say this is a sign that tighter policy will soon be needed, we doubt the Bank... 5th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank likely to talk rate expectations back down The surge in yields this week occurred despite another signal from the Bank of Canada that it plans to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels for a long time. This has led to suggestions that the... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Immigration target unlikely to be met this year The government signalled its commitment to its new immigration target this week, but disruption from the pandemic will probably prevent immigration from picking up meaningfully until at least the end... 19th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market shrugged off lockdowns in January The housing market has largely shrugged off the latest phase of the coronavirus restrictions. If anything, the data imply there are upside risks to our already above-consensus forecasts for house... 12th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy should avoid first-quarter contraction The unexpected rise in hours worked in January, and the jump in oil exports to the US, support our view that GDP should continue to expand this quarter, albeit at a much slower pace. 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Reliance on the kindness of strangers raises problems The government found itself battling on two fronts this week, as the EU moved to restrict vaccine exports and US President Joe Biden sought to strengthen ‘Buy American’ provisions at the expense of... 29th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Keystone XL cancellation highlights climate challenges The executive order signed by US President Joe Biden this week, to revoke the permit allowing the Keystone XL pipeline to cross the US border, means the project is as good as dead. This does not alter... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Vaccine availability to remain limited in first quarter The government confirmed this week that vaccine availability will remain limited in the first quarter, so there is little chance of the economic recovery beginning any sooner than we currently... 15th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly A slow start in the race to vaccinate Ontario and Quebec extended their coronavirus restrictions this week and, given that infections are still rising and logistical problems are holding up the vaccination process, it seems likely that... 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More COVID restrictions coming The provincial government in Quebec this week announced an 18-day “circuit breaker” lockdown, and the authorities in Ontario seem to be planning something similar. We assumed further measures were... 18th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie flies despite Bank’s pledge to keep yields low The Canadian dollar jumped to a two-year high this week and, despite the pledge from the Bank of Canada that it will keep rates low across the yield curve, we think there is still scope for further... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada stands out with new approach to fiscal policy Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland hinted this week that the government will continue to provide fiscal stimulus until the economy reaches full employment. This is a far cry from concerns elsewhere... 4th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Freeland to lay out investment plans There is now more pressure on Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to use the fall fiscal update next week to announce short-term measures to support the economy, but we still expect her to outline how... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
