Canada Economics Weekly Housing proposals unlikely to amount to much Housing has emerged as one of the key issues in the federal election campaign but, even if some of the latest proposals are implemented, we doubt that they would have much impact on house prices. 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trudeau risks a fourth-wave election Even if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to trigger an election during the emerging fourth wave of the pandemic does not backfire, we doubt a majority win for the Liberals on September 20 th... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Bank hints at benefits of new policy framework A new paper from the Bank of Canada outlines some additional economic benefits of a new monetary policy framework, which could be a sign that there is a greater chance of the Bank adopting average... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Exports heating up as housing cools There was more evidence that the housing market is cooling this week, with home sales slipping to 12-month lows in seasonally adjusted terms in both Toronto and Vancouver. The good news, however, is... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Bank will take comfort in latest inflation data Although inflation remained above the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range in June, the details of the release seem to support the Bank’s view that the high rate of inflation is due to transitory... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Drop in yields unlikely to do much for housing As the recent decline in bond yields have been most pronounced at the long end of the curve, it is unlikely to trigger much of a renewed fall in five-year mortgages rates. We expect mortgage rates to... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s new GDP forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada expects GDP to move above its pre-pandemic trend in 2023 but, given the potential for oil prices and residential investment to decline, we think its forecasts will prove too... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Home sales fall further in June The local real estate board data suggest that home sales fell further in June but, with new listings declining as well, house prices look set to keep rising. 9th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP to surpass pre-pandemic level in July The upward revision in March and smaller-than-expected fall in April mean that GDP is now on track to surpass its pre-pandemic level in July, a couple of months earlier than we previously thought... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rally more important than slump in lumber The dramatic fall in lumber prices over the past month has captured a lot of attention, but it is the more gradual rally in oil prices that is likely to have the greatest bearing on the economic... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New CPI weights could keep a lid on inflation The introduction of new weights for the June CPI means that some of the item-specific price increases that we expect will not push up headline inflation by as much as we thought. Nevertheless, there... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank unconcerned about inflation outlook The communications from the Bank of Canada this week confirmed that it is not worried about inflation surpassing its forecasts for this year, and that it remains committed to keeping the policy rate... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Elevated residential investment may concern the Bank The latest data suggest residential investment, which rose to more than 10% of GDP in the first quarter, has already peaked. With the Bank of Canada meeting next week, the key issue for policymakers... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hot economy summer The re-opening plans set out in the last couple of weeks point to strong gains in GDP over the summer. Given supply constraints, we expect the increase in activity to result in higher inflation than... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank monitoring housing for signs of “exuberance” The latest Financial System Review suggests that the Bank of Canada’s concerns about high house price inflation are a key risk to our view that it will wait until early 2023 before raising interest... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Vaccinations now outpacing most countries After being constrained for months by a lack of supply, vaccinations in Canada are now outpacing those in every other G20 nation. Nevertheless, the cautious approach by policymakers suggest that... 14th May 2021 · 5 mins read
