Canada Economics Weekly Bank monitoring housing for signs of “exuberance” The latest Financial System Review suggests that the Bank of Canada’s concerns about high house price inflation are a key risk to our view that it will wait until early 2023 before raising interest... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Vaccinations now outpacing most countries After being constrained for months by a lack of supply, vaccinations in Canada are now outpacing those in every other G20 nation. Nevertheless, the cautious approach by policymakers suggest that... 14th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Home sales decline for first time this year Home sales appear to have declined in April and further falls could act as a headwind to the recovery over the rest of the year. 7th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem unfazed by upside risks to inflation Governor Tiff Macklem said this week that the Bank of Canada remains committed to keeping interest rates low so long as the labour market remains weak, even if the upside risks to inflation... 30th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank raises forecasts as government boosts support Reflecting the additional fiscal support confirmed in the 2021 Budget this week, the Bank of Canada has raised its GDP growth forecasts to be closer to our own. Nevertheless, we do not expect the Bank... 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly All eyes on Budget 2021 and the Bank of Canada We expect the government to unveil further stimulus measures worth a little more than 4% of GDP next week, and anticipate a slightly more dovish message from the Bank of Canada than markets are... 16th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly OSFI waters down the punch The proposal by the financial regulator OSFI, to raise the qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages, is unlikely to weigh on house prices. But by reducing the share of highly-leveraged borrowers, it... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Third wave prompts new restrictions The data this week showed that the economy made a stronger start to the year than we previously thought, but the restrictions now being imposed to fight the third wave of the coronavirus suggest that... 1st April 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bond yields to rise as Bank cuts purchases Recent global developments and the signal this week from the Bank of Canada, that it is likely to cut its asset purchases sooner than we expected, lead us to think that Canadian bond yields will rise... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Vaccinations set to ramp up While the government hinted this week that the vaccination program could be completed before the target of September, the threat of vaccine nationalism elsewhere means that, with Canada reliant on... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to upgrade forecasts in April The Bank of Canada looks set to upgrade its GDP forecasts in April, but we would be surprised if it turned much more hawkish with regards to policy. 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy more reliant than ever on housing The fourth-quarter national accounts showed that residential investment now accounts for a record share of GDP. While some say this is a sign that tighter policy will soon be needed, we doubt the Bank... 5th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank likely to talk rate expectations back down The surge in yields this week occurred despite another signal from the Bank of Canada that it plans to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels for a long time. This has led to suggestions that the... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Immigration target unlikely to be met this year The government signalled its commitment to its new immigration target this week, but disruption from the pandemic will probably prevent immigration from picking up meaningfully until at least the end... 19th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market shrugged off lockdowns in January The housing market has largely shrugged off the latest phase of the coronavirus restrictions. If anything, the data imply there are upside risks to our already above-consensus forecasts for house... 12th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy should avoid first-quarter contraction The unexpected rise in hours worked in January, and the jump in oil exports to the US, support our view that GDP should continue to expand this quarter, albeit at a much slower pace. 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
