Canada Economics Weekly Market pricing too aggressive despite hawkish Bank Following the Bank of Canada’s hawkish message this week there is a risk that it raises interest rates sooner than we anticipate. Nevertheless, we continue to doubt that the Bank will hike by as much... 29th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth to disappoint as CRB ends The winding down of government support to households and firms means the economy faces a large fiscal contraction this quarter, which we think will cause GDP growth to disappoint. 22nd October 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil prices not a game-changer for the Bank We are not convinced that the further rise in oil prices this week will be sustained. Even if we are wrong, we doubt that higher oil prices will cause the Bank of Canada to become much more hawkish. 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Heading off a fiscal cliff? There have been rumours this week that the government will extend some of the emergency spending measures that are soon due to expire. They are unlikely to be extended in their current generous form... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly CMHC sounds the alarm (again) It’s hard to argue against the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) latest warning that house prices look vulnerable to a correction. Indeed, we expect prices to fall in several cities by... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Election solidifies larger role for government The federal election confirms that the government will continue to play a larger role in the economy than before the pandemic, which is one reason to think that inflation will be higher in the coming... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Post-election negotiations could lead to looser policy Whether the Liberals or Conservatives triumph on Monday, it seems likely that they will hold fewer seats than the current minority Liberal government. With the balance of power shifting toward the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Policymakers in focus The speech by Governor Tiff Macklem this week suggests that, when the Bank of Canada next tapers its asset purchases, it may do so by less than is commonly assumed. 10th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP shrinks, opinion polls shift The unexpected contraction in second-quarter GDP comes at a bad time for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with support for the ruling Liberal Party falling further this week and projections now pointing... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing proposals unlikely to amount to much Housing has emerged as one of the key issues in the federal election campaign but, even if some of the latest proposals are implemented, we doubt that they would have much impact on house prices. 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trudeau risks a fourth-wave election Even if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to trigger an election during the emerging fourth wave of the pandemic does not backfire, we doubt a majority win for the Liberals on September 20 th... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Bank hints at benefits of new policy framework A new paper from the Bank of Canada outlines some additional economic benefits of a new monetary policy framework, which could be a sign that there is a greater chance of the Bank adopting average... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Exports heating up as housing cools There was more evidence that the housing market is cooling this week, with home sales slipping to 12-month lows in seasonally adjusted terms in both Toronto and Vancouver. The good news, however, is... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Bank will take comfort in latest inflation data Although inflation remained above the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range in June, the details of the release seem to support the Bank’s view that the high rate of inflation is due to transitory... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Drop in yields unlikely to do much for housing As the recent decline in bond yields have been most pronounced at the long end of the curve, it is unlikely to trigger much of a renewed fall in five-year mortgages rates. We expect mortgage rates to... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s new GDP forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada expects GDP to move above its pre-pandemic trend in 2023 but, given the potential for oil prices and residential investment to decline, we think its forecasts will prove too... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
