Canada Economics Weekly Further rise in inflation cements 75 bp hike The May CPI data showed that inflationary pressures remain acute across the economy, which reinforces our view that despite growing concerns about the housing market, the Bank of Canada will become a... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New CPI weights to push inflation above 8% The new CPI weights outlined this week mean that inflation will peak at more than 8% in June, which is higher than we previously expected. That further raises the chance of the Bank of Canada... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly From one policy mistake to another? Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments this week, even as he presented a report warning of the risks of aggressive policy tightening, leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada is singularly focused... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly 50, 75…100 bp? Following its second 50 bp policy rate hike, the Bank of Canada hinted that it will consider an even larger move next month. With CPI inflation heading to 7.5% this month due to the renewed surge in... 3rd June 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to continue with 50bp rate hikes With core inflation rising well above the ceiling of the 1% to 3% target range and first-quarter GDP growth likely to have been as strong as 5.0% annualised, there is little to stop the Bank of Canada... 27th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation still rising, as housing slumps The Bank of Canada will have eyed this week’s data releases and market moves with some trepidation. The further acceleration in core CPI inflation in April means the Bank is all but guaranteed to push... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Gasoline price jump to drive CPI inflation above 7% The unexpected further jump in gasoline prices, reflecting a sharp widening of refiners’ margins, means we now expect headline CPI inflation to rise above 7% in May. While the rise in refiners’... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Cracks in housing market risk turning into chasms The slump in home sales in April, combined with the unexpected fall in hours worked, point to downside risks to GDP last month. While hours worked are set to rebound in May, there is likely to be much... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Business surveys strong, but clouds gather for housing The CFIB Business Barometer remained very strong in April and seems to bode well for the short-term outlook, but signs of a sharp slowdown in the housing market suggest that higher interest rates may... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation surge to prompt more rapid tightening The surge in consumer price inflation in March leads us to think that the Bank of Canada will now rapidly raise its policy rate to 2.5% by the end of the year. 23rd April 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Households vulnerable to higher rates The Bank of Canada embraced a new-found hawkishness this week, hiking its policy rate by 50bp to 1.00% and announcing an almost immediate start to what amounts to a relatively more aggressive... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Following 2022 budget, attention turns to the Bank The government used its 2022 Budget to set out a host of proposals to make housing more affordable for Canadians, but the impact of these measures on house prices will be far overshadowed by the... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget 2022 could make Bank even more “forceful” The strong activity data released this week raise the odds of the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates by a larger 50bp at its meeting later this month, particularly if the government loosens fiscal... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher forecasts for bond yields and the loonie Following the recent upgrades to our forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and interest rates, we now expect bond yields to be higher, and the loonie stronger, than we previously assumed. Meanwhile, we... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Another record rise in house prices The second consecutive record monthly gain in house prices in February, as well as the further rise in consumer price inflation to almost 6%, means the Bank of Canada will be eager to continue hiking... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to be more aggressive amid booming jobs market The surprisingly strong rise in employment in February reduces the downside risks to near-term economic activity from higher energy prices and reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada will now hike... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
