Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hike is far from a done deal The Bank of Canada mentioned this week that the economy is gathering momentum and indicated that it is considering hiking interest rates soon, prompting financial markets to quickly raise bets on a... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market on the brink The housing market appears on the verge of a downturn and will negatively impact economic growth from the second quarter onwards. Although Vancouver home sales have rebounded in recent past months, we... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Nothing inspiring about recent GDP growth The recent flurry of strong economic growth may look impressive but, looking beneath the surface, there’s still a lot to worry about. While the extraordinary housing investment boom has set new... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bond yields to rebound Given the recent ominous signs of a downturn in Toronto, we doubt that the Bank of Canada will be able to do much to prevent a correction in the housing market. The Bank of Canada only has limited... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment still weak The economy has grown strongly over the past few quarters and business confidence has risen. On closer examination, however, business investment has fallen to historically low levels, partly because... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar unlikely to sink much lower The recent drop in the Canadian dollar to US$0.73, from US$0.75, presumably reflects new fears of a global oil supply glut, which have been weighing on crude oil prices. Although this downward... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing boom turning to bust Average home sale price data contain far more timely market information about potential turns in the housing cycle than the aggregate house price indices that are more closely watched. That said, all... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Softwood lumber dispute isn’t start of potential trade war The decision by the US Commerce Department to impose preliminary import duties of close to 20% on Canadian softwood lumber isn’t a big surprise to domestic producers, nor will it seriously threaten... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly IMF naïve on Canada outlook The International Monetary Fund’s latest assessment of Canadian growth prospects is unfortunately naïve. Although the economy expanded strongly at the start of this year, that was partly due to the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank won’t raise interest rates to cool housing speculation The Bank of Canada confessed this week that speculation is partly responsible for the recent upswing in house prices, but doesn’t believe that higher interest rates are a solution to the problem. The... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth looking very uneven The uneven incoming data reinforce our view that the economy hasn’t turned the corner. Exports continue to misfire, which isn’t encouraging for hopes of a recovery in business investment. Meanwhile... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Markets getting ahead of themselves on rate outlook Financial markets appear to be ignoring the Bank of Canada’s latest warnings about the uncertain economic outlook and are pricing in an interest rate hike before the end of this year. In contrast, we... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly First-quarter GDP growth blitz unlikely to be sustained The recent run of positive economic data suggest that growth in first-quarter GDP could turn out to be as high as 3.0% annualised, stronger than the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 2.5%. The underlying... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slow growth in labour earnings likely to persist Recent headline employment gains, mainly in full-time work, have been impressive. It turns out that most of the job creation over the past year have been in industries where hours worked are below... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Residential investment still boosting economy Residential housing investment rebounded in the final quarter of last year and looks set to grow at an even faster pace this quarter, thanks to a surge in housing construction. While that will provide... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth firming, but downside risks abound The recent upturn in production activity and business confidence are encouraging signs for near-term growth prospects. There are still some big question marks, however. While first-quarter real GDP... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
