Canada Economics Weekly Deficit paranoia is mind-bogglingly stupid The hysterical response to the news that the Federal budget deficit might increase to as much as $30bn next year left us shaking our heads in dismay. Canadian economists are still stuck in the Paul... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stubbornly high inflation adding to the pain The rebound in headline inflation in January back to the mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range illustrates that the markedly weaker Canadian dollar isn’t all good news. Strong goods... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Mexico eating Canada’s lunch? Our analysis suggests that the weakness of Canadian manufacturing output is partly due to the knock-on drag from the collapse in the mining sector. In addition, however, Canadian manufacturers are... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Market turmoil adds to downside risks to economic growth With the economy reeling from the collapse in oil prices, the rapid deterioration in global financial conditions couldn’t have come at a worse time. The balance of risks to our forecast that GDP... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Negative interest rates unlikely in Canada While negative interest rate policies are being adopted by some major central banks, economic growth and inflation in Canada will be buffered by fiscal policy stimulus and the past depreciation of the... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation will fall further below 2% this year The sinking Canadian dollar has prevented the annual core CPI inflation rate from falling below the mid-point of the Bank of Canada 1% to 3% inflation target range, despite the worsening economic... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Policymakers stalling for time amid uncertain outlook Despite a rapidly deteriorating outlook, the Bank of Canada defended its recent inaction on interest rates on the basis of it not knowing the details of the upcoming Federal budget, due to be... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar likely to rebound before year end The plunge in the Canadian dollar to a thirteen-year low of US$0.69 has forecasters jumping on the bearish bandwagon with increasingly pessimistic forecasts for the year ahead, mainly over fears that... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the Bank of Canada preparing another surprise rate cut? While the majority of investors expect another interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada by the middle of this year, most of them don’t realise just how weak the economy is right now and the urgency... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households unprepared for what comes next We fear that households are utterly unprepared for the normalisation of market interest rates that began with the US Fed’s historic lift-off last week. Canada’s economy has long been overly reliant on... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Unconventional policy toolkit unlikely to be tested While we have long argued that the fallout from the oil shock would be disruptive and that hopes for an export revival were misplaced, we doubt that the Bank of Canada will need to resort to negative... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy exhibiting symptoms of recession The rebound in third-quarter real GDP has prompted some commentators to conclude that Canada’s recession is officially over. But the real GDI measure, which incorporates important terms of trade... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic rebound may already be fading The evidence suggests that the economy stumbled at the end of the third quarter, casting doubt about its capacity to survive the worsening oil price collapse. With non-exports misfiring and business... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deficit-funded spending plan unlikely to concern investors Canada’s new Federal Finance Minister has indicated that the government will forge ahead with its deficit-funded spending plan in an effort to support a flagging economy. Even if that means running... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Alternative employment survey reveals slowdown The fallout from the oil price shock has triggered a significant slowdown in hiring according to the large payroll employment survey, despite evidence to the contrary from the more popular household... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Even the bulls are nervous about housing now Investors who have paid attention to indicators of growing imbalances in Canada’s hot housing market over the years won’t be surprised by recent warnings of potential housing corrections from certain... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
