Canada Economics Weekly Some cautionary thoughts on June’s GDP The widely talked about 0.5% m/m gain in June’s GDP doesn’t convince us that the economy is on the path to recovery. Close examination of the data reveals that nearly half of this growth was due to... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Recovery from recession looking less clear cut Further declines in commodity prices, droughts and weaker business confidence indicate that the economy is struggling to escape the mild recession that began in the first half of the year. We still... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Don’t bet on further big falls in the Canadian dollar Markets still appear to be speculating on further declines in the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar but, after a 20% decline over the past 12 months, we believe that there is little scope for any... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Recession debate losing its focus Although the economy might only be suffering the mildest of recessions, the bigger and far more important point often lost in the debate is that the economy is clearly underperforming its growth... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Renovation tax credit would only worsen housing excesses The Conservative campaign pledge to introduce a new home renovation tax credit if elected this autumn is possibly more misguided than the NDP and Liberal pledges to raise taxes during a recession... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing shortage nothing more than a myth A housing shortage has been determined by the housing industry as the key explanation for record high house prices. While this interpretation appears to have caught on in certain circles, the broader... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market conditions set to deteriorate While the steady job gains from the household employment survey are often highlighted as a sign that the oil-induced recession in the first half of the year was an unusually mild one, closer... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Puzzling weakness in exports likely to persist The puzzling weakness in non-energy exports most likely boils down to a lack of competitiveness, even after taking into account the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Unless the value of the... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in investment could worsen in the second half The 2015 investment intentions survey suggests that real private and public investment will fall more sharply than most people realise this year. This is the strongest indication so far that, what... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fast escape from oil slump unlikely With the fallout from the oil price slump still taking its toll on the economy and manufacturing hobbling along, growth prospects look only marginally better now than at the start of the year. For the... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates again? Although there is limited scope to reduce interest rates further, the hit from lower oil prices on the economy is taking a heavier toll than widely acknowledged. Without any offset from the non-energy... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising jobs vacancy rate a lagging indicator The increase in the national jobs vacancy rate over the past year suggests that the economy has withstood the oil price shock. Closer examination, however, reveals that this measure lags economic... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rebound won't revive economy The recent rebound in crude oil prices isn't enough to make new oil sands projects profitable again. With the list of cancelled projects growing with each passing day, we expect falling business... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter rebound unlikely to be convincing After a dismal turn in the first quarter of the year, the economy should perform somewhat better in the second quarter, but the pace of growth is likely to be unspectacular. With growth of no more... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower loonie's influence on core inflation waning While headline inflation has fallen sharply due to lower energy prices, the boost to core inflation from the lower Canadian dollar may fade sooner than most realise. Wholesale price inflation, which... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt becoming a burden The all-clear siren sounded by the Fraser Institute last week on household debt is misleading. The debt service metric they use only captures the interest cost portion of debt, which completely misses... 25th May 2015 · 1 min read
