Canada Economics Weekly Strong oil production masking weakness elsewhere The economy appears to have had a stellar month in May, with a potential monthly gain in GDP of almost 1% implying that growth over the second quarter as a whole was close to 3% in annualised terms... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank still too sanguine about the housing market The Bank of Canada appears increasingly confident in the economic outlook, but we think that its forecasts for GDP growth will prove to be too optimistic. Following this week’s increase in the policy... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed employment survey makes Bank’s job harder The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement will take the spotlight next week. Despite June’s Labour Force Survey being something of a mixed bag, the subsequent rise in the Canadian dollar suggests that... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the construction sector in trouble? June’s employment figures, due for release next Friday, will confirm whether the recent signs of weakness in construction were just a temporary blip, possibly weather-related, or something more... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Dollar driven by rate outlook rather than trade fears The Canadian dollar hit a 12-month low this week, dropping to 75 cents against the US dollar. It started this year above 80 cents. Despite that decline, markets appear to be sanguine about the risks... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt will remain a risk for years to come The news earlier this week that household debt had edged down to 168.0% of disposable incomes in the first quarter, from 169.7% in the final quarter of last year, was greeted by some as confirmation... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investment boom already beginning to fade The strength of business investment has been one of the economy’s few bright spots over the past couple of quarters, but that surge in capex has done little to boost the economy’s still mediocre... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s hawkishness already looks premature The Bank of Canada issued a relatively hawkish policy statement on Wednesday this week, which increased speculation that another interest rate hike was coming, possibly as soon as July. But within... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly US keeps the heat on in NAFTA negotiations The NAFTA negotiations appeared to be winding down quietly since there was no longer enough time left for the US Congress to pass legislation before the end of this year. But President Donald Trump... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising rates add to pressure on housing Home sales dropped to a five-year low in April and the surge in interest rates suggests the downward trend in sales has further to run. Although the Bank of Canada is still on the fence regarding the... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil price unlikely to spur investment boom The US decision to exit the Iran nuclear accord pushed crude oil prices up to four-year highs this week, but prices are probably still too low to trigger a renewed investment boom in the Canadian oil... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz far too sanguine on debt build-up Earlier this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz gave a remarkably sanguine speech on the build-up in household debt. He concluded that, although record-high debt represented a risk and means... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal would boost foreign investment This week brought a furious last-minute push from all sides to reach a provisional deal on updating NAFTA, ahead of July’s Mexican presidential election. The US congressional mid-term elections won’t... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price surge having only limited impact on dollar The recent resurgence in oil prices should be good news for Canada but, since it is partly due to a temporary spike in geopolitical tensions, we expect prices to fall back later this year. Domestic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market remains muted Earlier this week we learned that, according to Teranet, national house price inflation slowed to a two-year low of 6.6% in March, from 7.5% in February and a recent peak of 14.2% in mid-2017. Based... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal wouldn't lead to higher interest rates The US administration appears to be pushing hard to get a deal done on NAFTA, reigniting speculation of further interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada. Even if a trade deal is done, however... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read