Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth to slow in 2018 The Canadian economy had a pretty good year in 2017, with GDP growth accelerating to 2.9%, up from 1.4% in 2016 and only 1.0% in 2015. But last year was a tale of two halves, with exceptionally strong... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie a key beneficiary of US dollar’s malaise The Canadian dollar hit 81 cents against the US dollar earlier this week but, rather than blaming the loonie’s rally on the Bank of Canada and its recent interest rate hike, the rebound appears to be... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes likely to be undone before long The Bank of Canada’s upgraded GDP growth forecast for this year looks overly optimistic given NAFTA and housing-related risks. Despite further increases in household borrowing costs and tougher new... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What would happen if the US withdrew from NAFTA? The rise in trade tensions ahead of the sixth round of NAFTA trade talks scheduled to start later this month suggest that those talks could already be doomed. But we still think that there’s a good... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Minimum wage hikes are a storm in a teacup Minimum wage hikes this year won’t have significant consequences for the broader economy or inflation, nor do they change the interest rate outlook one way or the other. As we have warned before, the... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Foreigners aren't to blame for high house prices New housing data showing that non-residents account for only a small fraction of the housing stock and claims that these foreigners aren’t to blame for high housing prices have been meet with ridicule... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Shrinking household wealth another problem The latest balance sheet data show that household indebtedness is even worse than previously thought, but the bigger problem now is that falling home values have begun to erode household net worth... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage pressures still muted The latest wage data indicate that there’s little risk of inflation overshooting the Bank’s 2% inflation target anytime soon. For this reason among others, the Bank has nothing to gain by raising... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Census data shed more light on low inflation The latest batch of Census data released earlier this week on the labour market cast doubt over the quality of the jobs created since the 2008-09 recession. There are still signs of prime-aged workers... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Legalisation of marijuana not without risks to economy The legalisation and regulation of marijuana next year will not significantly improve the economic growth outlook, although legitimising a previously black market industry will provide a modest one... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada already doubting itself Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkin’s speech earlier this week suggested that the Bank of Canada is already beginning to doubt its earlier upbeat assessment of the economic outlook, which was behind its... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada likely on hold until well into 2018 Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s speech earlier this week was too dismissive of the current weakness of underlying inflation, although that isn’t a surprise given the Bank’s interest rate hikes... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic outlook deteriorates The incoming monthly data suggest that economic growth faltered in the third quarter. The news isn’t all bad, but growth prospects for the fourth quarter are somewhat weaker than the third. And... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home ownership rate could tumble The unprecedented upswing in the national home ownership rate, fuelled in large part by a credit boom, appears to have peaked and is now going into reverse, even though the aging population should be... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth slowing Despite net external trade being a drag, the economy managed to grow by close to 2.0% q/q annualised in the third quarter, partly thanks to a big rebound in non-residential buildings investment... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Life without NAFTA wouldn't be catastrophic The most important data releases next week are the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and consumer prices. Following its decision to start raising interest rates this year, the Bank will be... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
