Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
Your questions about 2024 answered
We held two online Drop-In sessions today to discuss the outlook for 2024 and the risks to our forecasts. (See a recording here.) This Update summarises the answers to several of the questions that we
Fed will need to acknowledge plunging inflation soon
Officials not yet willing to fully endorse rate cut bets; tightening bias could be retained New SEP should confirm rates are at the peak but significant downgrades unlikely We expect the first rate
Bank to set the stage for 2024 rate cuts
Note: We’ll be discussing the Fed, ECB and Bank of England December decisions and the policy outlook for 2024 in an online briefing on Thursday, 14 th December. Click here to register for the 20
What would convince the Bank of England to cut rates?
The key indicators that have usually convinced the Bank of England to cut interest rates suggest the first cut could come in Q1 2024. That said, rates have risen to a lower peak than most models
Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2024 policy outlook
A year of the most aggressive monetary tightening in a generation is expected to end with the major DM banks leaving rates on hold at their December meetings. Following our briefings on the world in...
Falling mortgage rates won't spark major recovery
Overview – Housing market activity is likely to recover from here, driven by falling mortgage rates. That said, they are set to remain high relative to recent history. Our view is that mortgage rates