The combined strength of fiscal and monetary stimulus and the early success of the vaccination program means that we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this year and 4.0% in 2022. We would be surprised if economic growth turns out to be markedly stronger than that, however, since even a 6.5% gain would leave the economy hindered by supply constraints. The bigger risk is a sustained pick-up in inflation, particularly given the Fed’s shift in focus.
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