The more modest 4.0% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was mainly due to some temporary weakness in consumption, which was dragged down by the resurgence in coronavirus infections. With coronavirus cases now falling and Congress agreeing on a new $900bn stimulus late last year, we expect consumption growth to accelerate again in the first half of this year. First-quarter GDP growth should be 5% and second-quarter growth could be nearer 10%, particularly if Congress agrees on more stimulus.
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