Durable Goods (Jun.)

The June durable goods data were a little weaker than we had expected, but the further rise in underlying orders suggests that business equipment investment growth is slowing only gradually.
Andrew Hunter Senior US Economist
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US Economics Weekly

Powell gets the nod; GDP growth rebounding

The announcement on Monday morning that President Biden would nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed Chair was largely as expected, although the unexplained delays in making it official may have persuaded some in the markets that Biden was leaning toward picking Lael Brainard instead. As far as monetary policy goes, Powell and Brainard hold very similar, largely dovish, views. Elsewhere, as a result of the flurry of economic data releases ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday we have raised our fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 6.5% annualised, from 4.0%.

24 November 2021

US Data Response

Durable Goods, Adv. Trade (Oct.), GDP (Q3 2nd Est.)

The 0.5% fall in durable goods orders was not as bad as it looked, given that it was entirely due to a fall in volatile aircraft orders. But the bigger news this morning was the huge 10.7% m/m surge in exports in October, which is why we now estimate that GDP growth will accelerate from 2.1% annualised in the third quarter to more than 5% in the fourth, well above our previous forecast of a rise to 4%.

24 November 2021

US Employment Report Preview

Slowdown ahead

We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a solid 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers look set to weigh on employment growth soon.

24 November 2021

More from Andrew Hunter

US Fed Watch

Fed not yet ready to conclude tapering discussion

A few regional Fed Presidents are pushing for the Fed to begin tapering its Treasury and MBS purchases sooner rather than later. But with Chair Jerome Powell recently arguing that the recovery is still “a ways off” from meeting the “substantial further progress” test, we don’t expect any new guidance on asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting.

21 July 2021

US Economics Weekly

Democrats kick-start budget; Powell future uncertain

The Democrats’ $3.5trn budget proposal is only the first step in what could be a protracted negotiation to a final bill, which will be roughly fiscally neutral. Meanwhile, another dovish showing from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week hasn’t prevented rumours circulating that he is set to be replaced when his term expires next year.

16 July 2021

US Data Response

Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The 0.9% m/m surge in both headline and core consumer prices in June was much stronger than we expected and illustrates that temporary supply bottlenecks stemming from the pandemic are still putting significant upward pressure on prices in some sectors. But the bigger concern is that inflationary pressures are also now clearly building in cyclically-sensitive sectors, which could prove longer lasting.

13 July 2021
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