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Major Office Markets Outlook (Q4 2021)

Our stronger national office forecast this quarter mean upgrades to all six major markets. The largest of those uplifts is in Boston, which has seen a sharp rise up the rankings and where we expect total returns to hit double-digits in 2021 and 2022 before slowing to around 6% in 2023. With average annual capital growth of 1.5% over the five-year forecast, L.A. will not be far behind, while Chicago and Washington D.C. are forecast to occupy the middle slots. A notable upgrade to San Francisco means that its performance is now forecast to be similar to those two markets, leaving New York City trailing behind with total returns of around 4.5% p.a. across the forecast period. While the other five major markets are now forecast to outperform the national average with the addition of 2026 to our forecast period, NYC is forecast to underperform with its capital values still 5%-6% below their end-2019 levels by the end of 2026.

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