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Households still amassing excess savings, 3rd wave fears

We don’t think that consumers’ reluctance to pay for their purchases on plastic, or their still-elevated cash holdings, are signs that they will be less willing to spend in the future. Meanwhile, the surge in new daily COVID-19 cases has raised concerns about whether the easing in restrictions will go ahead as planned on June 21st. But if there is a delay, we don’t think it will make a big difference to our GDP forecast. It is the reopening of shops, pubs and restaurants in April and May, rather than the easing of the final restrictions on social distancing, nightclubs and big events, that is the key driver of our forecast for GDP growth of 6.5% q/q in Q2 and 8.0% in 2021 as a whole.

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