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S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun.)

The fact that the composite PMI didn’t fall in June means the economy could be holding up a little better than we and the Bank of England had feared. Beneath the headline numbers, the survey also suggests strong inflationary pressures have not gone away. That supports our view that interest rates will rise from 1.25% now to 3.00% next year, further than the 2.00% peak expected by the consensus of analysts.

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