Labour Market (Mar./Apr.)

Labour Market (Mar./Apr.)

Today’s data release suggests that the labour market is now on the front foot. Admittedly, the unemployment rate may still rise over the rest of this year. But this will probably be due to people re-joining the labour market rather than more people losing their jobs.
Thomas Pugh UK Economist
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More from Thomas Pugh

UK Data Response

Public Finances (May)

May’s public finances figures suggest the strong economic recovery is starting to feed through into lower government borrowing. This reinforces our view that the tax hikes and spending cuts that most fear may be avoided.

22 June 2021

UK Economics Weekly

Pay growth less inflationary than it looks, England v Scotland

The recent jump in pay growth has mainly been driven by base and compositional effects and is therefore less inflationary than it appears at first glance. That’s one reason why we think inflation will fall back below 2.0% next year and why the MPC won’t raise interest rates until 2025. Meanwhile, if economic variables are anything to go by, England may win tonight’s Euro 2020 clash with Scotland 2:1.

18 June 2021

UK Data Response

Labour Market (Apr./May)

Another strong set of labour market figures released this morning will feed concerns about labour shortages and the possible impact on inflation of higher wage growth. But the level of employment is still well below its pre-crisis level and underlying wage growth is much weaker than the headline number, suggesting there is still plenty of slack in the labour market.

15 June 2021
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