It seems almost certain that the MPC will keep interest rates at 0.75% at its next meeting on Thursday 19th September. The minutes may be slightly more hawkish than they were in August. But the uncertainty around the Bank’s projections due to Brexit will continue to tie the MPCs hands. Looking further ahead, Brexit makes forecasting anything tricky, but if the markets are going to be surprised, then we think that there is more scope for rate expectations to rise if there is a deal than to fall if there is a no deal.
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