On the basis of the downgrades to our views on the macroeconomic outlook, peak to trough falls in all-property capital values of about 40% now seem likely. That would be a bigger drop than the forecast from our August Commercial Property Analyst of 35%, but similar in scale to the corrections of the mid-1970s and early 1990s. This Focus is intended as a quick alert for clients, with the next Analyst fully fleshing out the themes and forecast numbers.
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