Egypt inflation, Saudi budget, Bahrain’s fiscal plan

Rising wheat and gas prices have added to concerns about inflation in Egypt, raising the risk that the central bank fails to deliver the interest rate cuts that we currently anticipate next year. Elsewhere, Saudi Q3 budget figures painted a positive picture but, even with oil receipts set to rise, officials seem intent on keeping policy tight for the time being. Fiscal consolidation is also being lined up in Bahrain, although we still think that the country will need financial assistance from the rest of the Gulf to meet its external debt repayments over the coming decade.