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Soleimani’s death and the threat of US-Iran war

The assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a major figure in the Iranian regime, in a US airstrike last night has significantly raised the chances of an outright conflict between the US and Iran. We’ve previously estimated that a US-Iran war could shave 0.5%-pts or more off global GDP, mainly due to a collapse in Iran’s economy but also due to the impact from a surge in oil prices.

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