Efforts to contain the coronavirus will cause Dubai’s economy to contract sharply, exacerbating overcapacity in key sectors and making it more difficult for the Emirate’s government-related entities (GREs) to service their large debts. Our own database shows that these debts have risen to more than 80% of the Emirate’s GDP. We think that Abu Dhabi would, ultimately, step in with another bailout. But a risk of a repeat of the events of 2009, when support was slow to arrive, is high. That would make the financial market and economic fallout much worse.
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