The Gulf economies, as well as Morocco, lead the way when it comes to COVID-19 vaccination programmes in the region. The UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar have provided at least one dose to more than half of their population, while Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have administered jabs to around 25 per 100. What’s more, the pace of vaccinations in the Gulf has accelerated over the past month which, if sustained, should mean the most vulnerable are vaccinated by the end of Q2. While this should support a lower incidence of hospitalisations and deaths, the recent rise in COVID-19 cases in most countries may make policymakers hesitant to lift restrictions quickly. As a result, with the exception of the UAE, social distancing measures are likely to remain in place in much of the region this quarter, meaning growth will be weak. However, as restrictions are eased in the second half of the year, the outlook will improve.
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