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Global Steel Production (Mar.)

Global steel production fell in y/y terms in March, as largest producer China recorded a decline for the third consecutive month this year. Looking ahead, we expect high energy costs to act as a constraint on steel production globally, while Chinese production will contract to meet state emission targets.
Luke Nickels Commodities Economist
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Global Steel Production (May)

Global steel production continued to pick up in May, led by higher output in India and China, which more than offset the ongoing decline in Europe’s production. The rise in input costs, efforts to curb carbon emissions and softer demand suggest that there will be only limited gains in global steel output this year.

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Global Aluminium Production (May)

Global aluminium production has increased steadily since the start of the year in large part owing to a rebound in China’s output. At the same time, demand is relatively subdued, which suggests that aluminium prices have further to fall in the second half of the year. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

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Chinese refined output will only plug some of the gap

Robust Chinese refined metal output, alongside subdued domestic demand, has combined with constrained refined output elsewhere to provide greater export opportunities for China. But there are limits on the extent to which Chinese metal can fill the shortfall elsewhere. This is one reason why we expect industrial metals prices to remain historically high for some time yet. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

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Global Aluminium Production (Mar.)

Global aluminium output fell by 1.5% y/y in March with high power costs keeping a lid on production growth. Looking ahead, we expect regions where energy prices are more manageable to continue to increase output while aluminium prices remain high.

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