Global Aluminium Production (Apr.)

Average daily global aluminium production was unchanged in April, but we continue to expect that output will increase this year given current high prices and premiums.
Caroline Bain Chief Commodities Economist
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Industrial Metals Update

Green transition to help charge cobalt prices

Cobalt prices have soared in 2021 to almost double the 2020 average price of $31,726 per tonne. We expect the growth in EV production and issues around supply to continue to push prices higher in 2022.

2 December 2021

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Global Steel Production (Oct.)

Global steel production contracted again in y/y terms in October, mainly owing to lower Chinese production. China’s output may rebound a little in the coming months as power rationing has come to an end, but weaker domestic demand will act as a disincentive.

23 November 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Oct.)

October’s IAI data suggest the easing of power restrictions in China has enabled greater utilisation rates at smelters, driving the global increase in output this month. We think that aluminium output will remain high over the rest of this year, incentivised by the high price. However, we expect that the slowing of the Chinese construction sector will weigh on demand and prices in 2022.

22 November 2021

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Commodities Update

China PMIs herald a period of slower growth

China’s June survey data show softer growth in activity and supports our forecast that economic growth will slow from here, which will weigh on the prices of most commodities, especially the metals.

1 July 2021

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US crude stocks fell for the sixth consecutive week amid the ongoing rebound in product demand as the virus-related restrictions continue to be lifted. That said, if OPEC+ decide to gradually raise output from August (as we expect) and US import volumes pick up, stocks may stabilise in the coming months.

30 June 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Making sense of the rise in exchange stocks

Exchange stocks of base metals have risen this year, which usually suggests that markets are well supplied. But much of the recent build in stocks has been opportunistic and driven by financial considerations rather than a surplus in the market. Regardless, we think that supply of most metals will pick up in the coming months, which should boost stocks further and weigh on prices.

29 June 2021
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