Peru & Mexico elections, (another) Argentine default?

A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to cheer about even if his rival Keiko Fujimori wins. Mexicans will also head to the polls this weekend for the midterm elections, and a strong showing for President López Obrador’s coalition could embolden him to pursue more interventionist policies in the second half of his term. Finally, Argentina's government missed a $2.4bn payment to Paris Club creditors this week which is another worrying sign that policymakers still do not have a clear plan about how to manage their debts. This bodes ill for renegotiating their huge $45bn IMF loan repayments which kick in soon.