Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.)

Mexican inflation continued to rise in the first half of August, but this was largely the result of another jump in food inflation. As such, it’s unlikely to change the central bank’s view that inflation will soon peak.
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Latin America Economics Weekly

New face at Banxico, Chile election wrap-up

The unexpected change in the nomination for Banxico’s next governor, to Victoria Rodríguez from Arturo Herrera, hit investor confidence but we don't think this switch alters the outlook for Banxico’s gradual tightening cycle. Meanwhile, investors initially cheered the result of Chile’s first-round presidential election but with political risks unlikely to fade soon, and copper prices set to fall further, we see little upside in Chilean local markets from here. Drop-In: Why is Asia sitting out the global inflation surge? 09:00 GMT/17:00 HKT, Thursday 2nd December https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3546145/A9D34EF592141BEFCAC819ADB40359D5?partnerref=report

26 November 2021

Latin America Economics Update

Unpacking the oddities in Mexican GDP

The final estimate of Mexican Q3 GDP data was revised down to a 0.4% q/q fall (original -0.2% q/q), but the breakdown showed the contraction was almost entirely due to an outsourcing law that hit services output. Regardless of this statistical quirk, Mexico’s recovery will remain one of the weakest in the region.

25 November 2021

Latin America Data Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov. 2021)

The Brazilian inflation reading of 10.7% y/y in mid-November (the same as the October full month figure) provides the first sign that inflation is now stabilising. But with the headline rate still far above target and fiscal risks persisting, it looks more likely than not that Copom will raise the Selic rate in a larger 175bp step (to 9.50%) when it meets next month.

25 November 2021

More from Capital Economics Economist

Emerging Europe Economics Update

What should we make of Russia’s data revisions?

The upwards revisions to Russia’s industrial production figures have raised concerns about the quality of the data but, based on the figures released so far, the new series does seem to reflect economic conditions more accurately than the older series.

29 June 2018

Middle East Economics Update

Egypt rates on hold, easing cycle to resume in September

The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold (rather than lower rates) was a response to recently-announced subsidy cuts that will push up inflation. But the easing cycle is likely to resume at September’s MPC meeting. And we still think interest rates will, ultimately, be lowered by more than most analysts expect over the next couple of years.

28 June 2018

Energy Focus

Is the sun setting on the oil market?

Slowing economic growth and rapidly rising fuel efficiency, partly due to a surge in the number of electric vehicles, mean that growth in demand for oil will slow and eventually peak over the next twenty years. At the same time, plentiful oil reserves mean that supply should be ample. Indeed, the marginal cost of production is likely to fall as OPEC loses its pricing power and advances in shale technology force more expensive forms of production out of the market. As a result, we expect real oil prices to trend down over the next two decades.

28 June 2018
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