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Tankan (Q4 2021)

The Q4 Tankan survey showed that the services sector has started to narrow the gap relative to manufacturing and we think that process has further to run.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Japan Data Response

Japan Industrial Production (May 2022)

The plunge in industrial output in May suggests that Japan’s recovery is disappointing yet again. The upshot is that it will take until the second half of the year for GDP to surpass its pre-virus level. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

30 June 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Retail Sales (May 2022)

The disappointing rise in retail sales in May poses downside risks to our upbeat forecasts for consumption growth in Q2. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

29 June 2022

Japan Economics Weekly

Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak

Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida said that monetary tightening would do more harm than good. Even more welcome for the BoJ, pressure emanating from the bond market has dropped back too. It had to buy less than a tenth as many JGBs this week as last. Some might feel that this reduces the need to shore up the policy framework. But a respite provides a window in which to make it more resilient.
Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Federal fiscal resilience masks state weakness

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will gloat when he unveils in the upcoming Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook that the federal deficit will be smaller in 2021/22 than expected despite the recent Delta wave. However, the bulk of the support during the lockdowns was provided by the states and their budget deficits widened sharply last quarter. With their revenue base more narrow and debt levels set to keep rising for years, state government bond spreads will keep edging up as the RBA winds down its bond purchases.

10 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia moving closer to digital Aussie dollar

The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian government are keen to explore the benefits of a retail central bank digital currency. But with pilot projects yet to start, we doubt that an eAud will be launched before the middle of this decade.

9 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA to hike rates by less than markets anticipate

The RBA still sounded dovish when it kept policy unchanged policy. We think that rates will rise earlier than the Bank anticipates but later and by less than what the financial markets price in.

7 December 2021
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