Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jul.)

Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jul.)

We wouldn’t read too much into the slowdown in wage growth in July as it was driven by volatile bonus payments. Base pay continues to grow at a healthy pace. We expect wage growth to strengthen a bit further but it won’t be fast enough to generate 2% inflation.
Julie Nicol Office Administrator (Singapore)
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More from Japan

Japan Economics Weekly

Restrictions may not last long, key Shunto approaching

With restrictions this week expanded to cover most of Japan’s economy, and surging infections already starting to cause staff shortages in some industries, GDP is only likely to tread water this quarter. But based on experience elsewhere, the Omicron surge may only last another couple of weeks before staff shortages ease and countermeasures start to be lifted again. Meanwhile, reports suggesting that Toyota’s labour union – sometimes seen as a bellwether in wage talks – will seek a sharp rise in bonus payments at this year’s Shunto could be an early sign that wage growth will pick up this year in line with PM Kishida’s wishes.

21 January 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Consumer Prices (Dec. 2021)

Consumer price inflation reached a two-year high of 0.8% in December, but with energy prices set to fall back, we think that it will peak around 1% by mid-year.

21 January 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan External Trade (Dec. 2021)

Exports were broadly stable in December after a sharp rebound in November. We think they’ll continue to recover at a decent pace this year as external demand for capital goods continues to rise and motor vehicle exports resume their recovery once Omicron waves subside.

20 January 2022

More from Julie Nicol

Australia & New Zealand Chart Book

Unemployment rates to rise

The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate in ten months. But the rate of jobs growth isn’t strong enough to keep up with growth in the labour force, so the unemployment rate is now the highest it has been in eight months. And with business surveys, job ads and economic activity all pointing to softer employment growth we suspect the unemployment rate will rise further this year. In New Zealand we suspect the slowdown in employment growth has further to run,which should flow through to an increase in the unemployment rate before long.

3 June 2019

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (May)

Weak PMI readings and the deterioration in Korea’s export data suggest that the regional economy is likely to have endured another quarter of disappointing growth in Q2, dashing hopes of a quick rebound.

3 June 2019

India Economics Weekly

Modi sworn in, Finance Minister speculation

Prime Minister Modi was sworn in for his second term this week, and one of his first key tasks will be to select a new Finance Minister after Arun Jaitley announced that he would be stepping down from the post. Of the two apparent front-runners, the appointment of Piyush Goyal would point to policy continuity, while the appointment of Amit Shah would raise the prospect of looser fiscal policy.

31 May 2019
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