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Japan External Trade (Jun. 2021)

The rebound in exports showed further signs of slowing in June despite another high y/y growth rate caused by base effects. We think external demand will only provide a small tailwind to growth over the coming months as capital goods exports continue to rise but consumer goods exports weaken in the wake of vaccine rollouts.
Tom Learmouth Japan Economist
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Japan Data Response

Japan Industrial Production (May 2022)

The plunge in industrial output in May suggests that Japan’s recovery is disappointing yet again. The upshot is that it will take until the second half of the year for GDP to surpass its pre-virus level. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

30 June 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Retail Sales (May 2022)

The disappointing rise in retail sales in May poses downside risks to our upbeat forecasts for consumption growth in Q2. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

29 June 2022

Japan Economics Weekly

Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak

Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida said that monetary tightening would do more harm than good. Even more welcome for the BoJ, pressure emanating from the bond market has dropped back too. It had to buy less than a tenth as many JGBs this week as last. Some might feel that this reduces the need to shore up the policy framework. But a respite provides a window in which to make it more resilient.
Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

More from Tom Learmouth

Japan Economics Weekly

Delta variant taking hold in Tokyo before Olympics

A delta variant-driven fifth wave has begun and cases are beginning to surge in Tokyo ahead of the Olympics opening ceremony next Friday. However, the variant is still overwhelmingly concentrated in Tokyo – where a state of emergency came into force on Monday – and vaccines are already beginning to have a positive impact. Only a small fraction of cases are now amongst the over-65s and nationwide deaths are at their lowest level since November. Indeed, we think the current outbreak should be manageable with the current restrictions in place and still expect PM Suga to be able to remove most domestic restrictions from late-Q3 once vaccine coverage is high.

16 July 2021

Bank of Japan Watch

New climate change facility not a game changer

At its July meeting we expect the Bank of Japan to outline that it will offer interest-free loans to banks under its new fund-provisioning measures aimed at addressing climate change. Beyond that though, the Bank won’t alter its major policy settings.

9 July 2021

Japan Data Response

Japan Wages & Household Spending (May 2021)

While the further acceleration in wage growth in May was again largely down to favourable base effects, we think wage growth will stay elevated as the labour market tightens and vaccines fuel a further recovery in overtime pay. Meanwhile, the only modest drop in household spending in May suggests that consumer spending may have edged up last quarter.

6 July 2021
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