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Japan External Trade (Aug. 2021)

Today’s trade figures suggest that export volumes kept rising and we think that Japan’s focus on cars and machinery means that they will hold up better than in other Asian economies.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Japan Data Response

Japan Industrial Production (May 2022)

The plunge in industrial output in May suggests that Japan’s recovery is disappointing yet again. The upshot is that it will take until the second half of the year for GDP to surpass its pre-virus level. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

30 June 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Retail Sales (May 2022)

The disappointing rise in retail sales in May poses downside risks to our upbeat forecasts for consumption growth in Q2. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

29 June 2022

Japan Economics Weekly

Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak

Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida said that monetary tightening would do more harm than good. Even more welcome for the BoJ, pressure emanating from the bond market has dropped back too. It had to buy less than a tenth as many JGBs this week as last. Some might feel that this reduces the need to shore up the policy framework. But a respite provides a window in which to make it more resilient.
Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia- What to expect from a monetary policy review

We doubt that any independent review of Australia’s monetary policy framework would result in a change to the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target. But the Bank could be forced to put more emphasis on house prices, reduce the frequency of Board meetings, and strengthen the role of external Board members.

15 September 2021

Japan Economics Weekly

Light at the end of the tunnel

High frequency data suggest that the Delta wave resulted in a renewed weakening in consumer spending in recent weeks. And given that the government this week extended the state of emergency in the largest prefectures to end-September, we’ve pencilled in a drop in consumption across Q3. However, new virus cases are now plunging, which should ease pressure on the medical system. What’s more, nearly half of the population is now fully vaccinated and the government indicated that it will ease restrictions by November even in prefectures under a state of emergency. The upshot is that consumption should rebound strongly in Q4.

10 September 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA may only hike in 2023

While the RBA pressed ahead with tapering its asset purchases today, the financial markets are too optimistic in pricing in rate hikes as soon as next year.

7 September 2021
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