The rural economy has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks and we think it will continue to hold up relatively well further ahead. However, urban prospects look much more bleak, in part due to the greater difficulties in containing the coronavirus there. A reimpositon of tighter restrictions is likely in urban areas where virus cases are rising particularly fast, which would reinforce our view that India will suffer a slower and more fitful recovery than many countries in Asia that have successfully contained the virus.
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